Alfonso Cuaron (‘Gravity’) predicted to win Directors Guild Award

Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity“) is all but certain to win the top prize at the 66th annual edition of the Directors Guild of America Awards on Saturday.

This first-time nominee is far out in front, with the support of all of our Experts save for Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), all of our Editors, 21 of our Top 24 Users from last year and 85% of All Users. That support gives him odds of 1/5. 

Stone, those three Top 24 Users and 10% of All Users are backing the bid by another rookie contender Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave“) who has odds of 8/1. 

With just a smattering of support each, second-time nominee David O. Russell (“American Hustle“) has odds of 33/1 while 2006 champ Martin Scorsese — who reaped his eight film nomination for “The Wolf of Wall Street” is at 50/1 and another newcomer, Paul Greengrass (“Captain Phillips“), ranks last with odds of 100/1. 

All but Greengrass also contend for Best Director at the Oscars; he was bumped out there by Alexander Payne (“Nebraska”). 

In the 65-year history of the DGA awards, it’s winner has gone on to take home the Oscar on 58 occasions. Not surprisingly then, Cuaron is the overwhelming favorite at the Oscars too. The seven exceptions have been:

1968 — DGA to Anthony Harvey for “The Lion in Winter” and Oscar to Carol Reed for “Oliver!”

1972 — DGA to Francis Ford Coppola for “The Godfather” and Oscar to Bob Fosse for “Cabaret”

1985 — DGA to Steven Spielberg for “The Color Purple” and Oscar to Sydney Pollack for “Out of Africa”

1995 — DGA to Ron Howard for “Apollo 13” and Oscar to Mel Gibson for “Braveheart”

2000 — DGA to Ang Lee for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic”

2002 — DGA to Rob Marshall for “Chicago” and Oscar to Roman Polanski for “The Pianist”

2012 — DGA to Ben Affleck (“Argo”) and Oscar to Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”)

Usually, as with this year, there have been one or two differences between the slate selected by the 14,500 members of the DGA — which includes helmers of TV fares and commercials — and the choices of the 377 members of the directors branch of the academy.

However, last year only two of the Directors Guild of America nominees —  Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) and Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”) — also reaped Oscar bids. The other three DGA nominees — Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”) and Tom Hooper (“Les Miserables”) — were snubbed by the Oscars in favor of Michael Haneke (“Amour”), David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild).  Lee won the Oscar race. 

That disconnect between the DGA and Oscars was unprecedented.

Affleck won over the DGA voters while his film, “Argo,” became the third to take Best Picture at the Oscars without a corresponding Best Director nomination. The others: “Grand Hotel” (1931/32) and “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989).

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