Michael Keaton (“Birdman“) leads our Oscar predictions for Best Actor, but because the Golden Globes split the top acting prizes between dramas and musicals/comedies, this year’s top dramatic actors won’t have to face off against the comic Keaton. So who will win Best Film Drama Actor? Our predictors are split between two stars of British biopics: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) and Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game“).
Redmayne has a slight advantage, getting 12/5 odds for his role as famed physicist Stephen Hawking. He plays Hawking over the course of decades as motor neuron disease deteriorates his ability to move and speak. It would be the first Globe nomination and win for the 32-year-old actor.
Cumberbatch is close behind with 27/10 odds. He plays another historical genius: Alan Turing, a computer-science pioneer who helped crack the German Enigma code and win World War II, only to be persecuted by the British government for being gay. Cumberbatch has one previous Globe nomination, for his title role in the TV series “Sherlock” in 2012; he could be nominated again for that role this year.
Our predictors are sharply divided. Experts are split down the middle, with seven apiece picking Redmayne and Cumberbatch. Our Users and Top 24 Users (the top scorers predicting last year’s Globe nominations) are also divided, but their split slightly favors Cumberbatch. See the chart below, and click on it for more stats:
But as you can see, our Editors – myself included – are overwhelmingly betting on Redmayne; five of us expect him to prevail, while one is predicting Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher“), and none are backing Cumberbatch.
Time is running out to make your Golden Globe predictions; nominations are announced on Thursday, December 11. Click here to make your predictions in 10 Globe categories for film, or use our drag-and-drop menu below to get started.