Look for “True Detective,” “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” and “Orange is the New Black” to be among the new TV series breaking into the Emmy derby in a big way when nominations are announced on Thursday morning.
“True Detective” gets 4-to-1 odds to win Best Drama Series, according to the odds set by the predictions of 14 Experts from TV Guide, Huffington Post, USA Today and other top media participating at Gold Derby. However, the category’s defending champ “Breaking Bad” has much better odds to triumph (19/10), being the number-one pick of 12 of the pundits. See how the Experts rank all contenders here.
Both shows are guaranteed bids for best drama, as are “House of Cards” (11/2) and “Game of Thrones” (8/11), but there’s strong debate over which programs will get the remaining two slots in the category. Three of last year’s nominees are vulnerable – “Mad Men” (14/1), “Downton Abbey” (33/1) and “Homeland” (100/1) – and two new contenders are angling for inclusion: “The Americans” and “Masters of Sex.” Past nominee “The Good Wife” was snubbed last year, but it could rally thanks to its recent creative comeback.
“Orange is the New Black” (9/1) and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (12/1) will be nominated for Best Comedy Series, but “Modern Family” has the best odds (21/10) to prevail again. So far it has never lost the race and will tie the record (five wins) set by “Frasier” if it repeats.
“Modern Family” is backed by 10 Experts: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Mike Cidoni and Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Glenn Whipp (Modern Family) plus Paul Sheehan and me for Gold Derby. Three pundits pick “Veep”: Steve Pond (The Wrap), Lynette Rice (People) and Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire). Freelancer Ken Tucker backs “The Big Bang Theory.”
“Louie” (8/1) is also expected to make the cut, but last year’s nominee “Girls” now ranks seventh in a six-show race. “Silicon Valley” is considered a possible threat.
Last year’s winners of Best Comedy Actor and Actress Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) are given strong odds to repeat.
The most fierce Emmy competition is over in the drama slots where recent Oscar champ Matthew McConaughey (“True Detective”) takes on three-time Emmy victor Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) and two-time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”). Experts give Cranston the edge with 23-to-10 odds.
Recent Golden Globe winner Robin Wright (“House of Cards“) get the best odds (12/5) to win Best Drama Actress, but she faces tough competition from Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife“), Claire Danes (“Homeland“), Kerry Washington (“Scandal”), Tatiana Maslany (“Orphan Black“) and Keri Russell (“The Americans“).