In our new prediction slugfest video, Gold Derby Editors are wary of declaring Anna Gunn (“Breaking Bad“) a lock to win Best Drama Supporting Actress because Emmy voters always like to throw us a few surprises. In particular, there are two other ladies with stand-out episode submissions that make this a real race: Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey“) and Christine Baranski (“The Good Wife“).
Joining me in our latest video (watch below) are Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble and Charles Bright as we analyze the episodes submitted to Emmy judges as examples of their best work from the past TV season. Gunn went with “Ozymandias,” Froggatt chose “Episode 4.2” and Baranski submitted “The Last Call.” Other nominees: Maggie Smith for “Downton Abbey” (“The London Season”), Christina Hendricks for “Mad Men” (“The Strategy”) and Lena Headey for “Game of Thrones” (“The Lion and the Rose”).
In the slugfest, we are so confident that Gunn is out front that we struggle to come up with reasons for why she might falter on Emmy night. One possibility: it’s been 12 years since a woman repeated (Blythe Danner, “Huff,” 2005-2006) in this category, which indicates voters like to spread the wealth. Since Gunn won last year, could that hurt her chances?
Froggatt submitted an emotional episode in which her character was sexually assaulted, while Baranski and Headey both chose hours coping with characters’ deaths. Smith and Hendricks submitted okay episodes, but their biggest detriment this year is the killer category competition.
Gold Derby’s official combined racetrack odds currently find Gunn in first place to win with 2/5, followed by Baranski in second place with 5/1 odds, Froggatt in third place with 16/1 odds, Headey and Smith tied for fourth place with 50/1 odds and Hendricks in last place with 100/1 odds.
See all of our Editors’ predictions ranked per category here. Compare them to forecasts by the Emmy Experts here and by our Top 24 Users here. See the rankings and racetrack odds generated when all predictions are combined.
Do you agree with our Editors’ predictions for Best Drama Supporting Actress? Make your own predictions below the video and then sound off in the comments section or join the discussion in our Emmys forum. See the full list of Emmy episode submissions here.