In our new prediction slugfest, Gold Derby Editors are thrown into a tizzy by Robin Wright‘s episode submission for “House of Cards” as Best Drama Actress and debate whether her choice will help or hurt her chances. Claire Danes (“Homeland“) is out front in all our predictions to three-peat for this role, but we also make room for Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife“) to win again despite last year’s snub.
Joining me in our latest video (watch below) are Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery and Charles Bright as we analyze the episodes submitted to Emmy judges as examples of their best work from the past TV season. Danes went with “The Star,” Margulies submitted “The Last Call” and Wright ultimately decided on “Chapter 26.” Other nominees: Kerry Washington for “Scandal” (“The Fluffer”), Lizzy Caplan for “Masters of Sex” (“Pilot”) and Michelle Dockery for “Downton Abbey” (“Episode 4.1”).
Danes scores the most points from our Editors’ roundtable by having two impact scenes in the episode that will surely stay with voters. But if the “Homeland” backlash affects her chances, get ready for a win by Margulies or Washington. Wright, meanwhile, went with an episode in which she only has about eight minutes of dialogue, meaning voters would have to overlook the major screen time issue in order for her to win.
While most of the nominees cry in their episodes, Caplan wows us with her character’s strength during the scene in her submission when she punches a guy for disrespecting her. It’s a great moment that’ll have the judges rooting for her, but with such strong competition she might have to wait until next year to win. And even though Dockery has an episode that’s twice the length of all her competitors, we don’t expect size to matter much in the race this year.
Gold Derby’s official combined racetrack odds currently find Wright in first place with 1/1 odds, Margulies in second place with 21/10 odds, Danes in third place with 10/1 odds, Washington in fourth place with 20/1 odds, Caplan in fifth place with 50/1 odds and Dockery in sixth place with 100/1 odds.
See all of our Editors’ predictions ranked per category here. Compare them to forecasts by the Emmy Experts here and by our Top 24 Users here. See the rankings and racetrack odds generated when all predictions are combined.
Do you agree with our Editors’ predictions for Best Drama Actress? Make your own predictions below the video and then sound off in the comments section or join the discussion in our Emmys forum. See the full list of Emmy episode submissions here.