In our new prediction slugfest, Gold Derby Editors make a shocking announcement in the Best Comedy Actress race: Watch out for Melissa McCarthy (“Mike and Molly“). This 2011 Emmy winner has an emotional episode submission that could unseat the current undefeated champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) as TV’s top comedy queen. And what about poor Emmy-less Amy Poehler‘s chances for “Parks and Recreation“?
Joining me in our latest video (watch below) are Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery and Charles Bright as we analyze the episodes submitted to Emmy judges as examples of their best work from the past TV season. Louis-Dreyfus went with “Crate,” McCarthy settled on “Mind Over Molly” and Poehler elected to choose “Recall Vote.” Other nominees: Taylor Schilling for “Orange is the New Black” (“The Chickening”), Lena Dunham for “Girls” (“Beach House”) and Edie Falco for “Nurse Jackie” (“Super Greens”).
So why are we all fawning over McCarthy’s episode? She’s a force to be reckoned with as she makes us laugh in her therapist’s office, then makes us cry over her father’s long-ago death. It’s a sweet, huggable performance that’s the polar opposite of Louis-Dreyfus’ character of selfish, bitter V.P. Selina. If the voting panel wants to reward likeability, the Emmy will go to McCarthy. If the voters want to honor importance, the Emmy will go to Louis-Dreyfus.
Poehler’s drunk scenes could polarize voters, as could Dunham’s never-ending bickering with her girlfriends. Schilling has a great speech in her episode about catching the chicken, but the show’s dramatic nature could hurt her chances in the comedy field. And we agree that Falco is outshined in her submission by co-star Merritt Wever, so it’s unlikely voters will champion this Emmy favorite this year.
Gold Derby’s official combined racetrack odds currently find Louis-Dreyfus in fist place with 2/9 odds, Schilling in second place with 8/1 odds, Poehler in third place with 25/1 odds, McCarthy and Falco tied for fourth place with 50/1 odds and Dunham in last place with 100/1 odds.
See all of our Editors’ predictions ranked per category here. Compare them to forecasts by the Emmy Experts here and by our Top 24 Users here. See the rankings and racetrack odds generated when all predictions are combined.
Do you agree with our Editors’ predictions for Best Comedy Actress? Make your own predictions below the video and then sound off in the comments section or join the discussion in our Emmys forum. See the full list of Emmy episode submissions here.