In our new prediction slugfest, Gold Derby Editors agree that the race for Best Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actor is pretty much a lock for Matt Bomer (“The Normal Heart“), but that if Emmy voters want to reward a veteran here (as they often do), they could go to Bomer’s co-star Joe Mantello thanks to his character’s passionate speech. Fan favorite Martin Freeman (“Sherlock: His Last Vow“) also has a good shot if voters don’t want to give it to one of the four “Normal Heart” nominees.
As for the other three nominees — Alfred Molina and Jim Parsons for “Normal Heart” and Colin Hanks for “Fargo” — we’re worried that they could be overlooked thanks to Bomer, Mantello and Freeman having bigger buzz and impact in their productions. In particular, Hanks faces an uphill battle because his character is pretty much non-existent until several episodes into “Fargo,” which could hurt him if Emmy voters just watch the first couple episodes.
But, not so fast. Aren’t Bomer’s chances hurt by Slap the Stud syndrome? We discuss how Bomer actually might be immune to that effect this year because he uglifies himself on screen, just like Matthew McConaughey did in his Oscar-winning role on “Dallas Buyers Club.”
Gold Derby’s official combined racetrack odds currently find Bomer in first place with 2/13 odds, Freeman in second place with 20/1 odds, Mantello in third place with 33/1 odds, Hanks and Parsons tied for fourth place with 50/1 odds and Molina in last place with 100/1 odds.
See all of our Editors’ predictions ranked per category here. Compare them to forecasts by the Emmy Experts here and by our Top 24 Users here. See the rankings and racetrack odds generated when all predictions are combined.
Do you agree with our Editors’ predictions for Movie/Mini Supporting Actor? Make your own predictions below the video and then sound off in the comments section or join the discussion in our Emmys forum. See the full list of Emmy episode submissions here.