Marcus James Dixon: 4 crazy Emmy predictions that’ll make you question my sanity

Just as I did for the Oscars, it’s time to announce my four crazy Emmy predictions that’ll have you questioning my sanity as an Emmy pundit.

As a refresher, at last year’s Emmys I only netted a prediction score of 37%. While that seems low, it actually tied me for second place with Daniel Montgomery amongst all Gold Derby Editors and behind only Chris Beachum who led with 44% correct. But still, 2013 was not a good year for me in terms of predicting the Emmys. In fact, the phrase “Dixon Curse” has popped up recently and it’s trending constantly in my head.

Will the following four against-the-odds Emmy predictions ensure I do better this year?

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CRAZY PREDICTION #1

Jesse Tyler Ferguson (“Modern Family“) will win Best Comedy Supporting Actor

Why it’s not THAT crazy:

Ferguson is one of the few “Modern Family” cast members to be nominated for all five seasons, along with Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen who’ve already won their Emmys. The TV Academy clearly loves him, but there’s always been someone else on Emmy night they loved just a little bit more. This year, the entire season was devoted to Ferguson and Eric Stonestreet‘s wedding, and since Stonestreet was again inexplicably snubbed, that means Ferguson is the only logical place for voters to honor this popular storyline. In lieu of throwing rice, they’ll be throwing him their votes.

Ferguson gives an impactful, emotional performance in his episode, but he also has the benefit of being hilarious in Burrell’s submission, ensuring that Emmy voters will see a wider range than he’s given in the past. This is finally Ferguson’s year, and I won’t be convinced that a single bloody nose scene will make it two-for-two for reigning champ Tony Hale (“Veep“).

The combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users for this category currently find Ferguson in third place with 9/2 odds, behind Hale in first place with 15/8 odds and Andre Braugher (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine“) in second place with 19/10 odds.

Emmy Episode Analysis:
Jesse Tyler Ferguson is over budget and very emotional

CRAZY PREDICTION #2

Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones“) will win Best Drama Supporting Actor

Why it’s not THAT crazy:

Speeches, speeches, speeches. Just like Jeff Daniels (“The Newsroom“) last year, Dinklage gives the single greatest speech from all of this year’s Emmy episode submissions, but yet he’s underrepresented in terms Gold Derby’s overall predictions. Did we learn nothing last year, people?

Here’s the kicker: Dinklage’s speech in “The Laws of Gods and Men” is actually better than his speech in “Baelor” that won him an Emmy in 2011. While the “Baelor” monologue was all about a lost love, this year’s dictation is full of passion, anger and betrayal as his character is on trial for a murder he did not commit. Even though Dinklage doesn’t pop up until the 30 minute mark in his episode, his memorable performance at the conclusion of the hour blows everyone else out of the water here.

The combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users for this category currently find Dinklage in third place with 6/1 odds, behind Aaron Paul (“Breaking Bad“) in first place with 1/1 odds and Josh Charles (“The Good Wife“) in second place with 13/5 odds.

Emmy Episode Analysis:
Peter Dinklage wishes death upon his kingdom

CRAZY PREDICTION #3

Mark Ruffalo (“The Normal Heart“) will win Best Movie/Mini Actor

Why it’s not THAT crazy:

Yes, I realize that the two “Fargo” guys have more buzz and fan support, but when it comes down to it, Ruffalo gives a performance that’s tailor-made to win over Emmy voters. Similar to Dinklage, Ruffalo’s character has a penchant for speechifying, which could tip him over the edge if voters can’t decide between Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman.

Despite what others may claim, Ruffalo’s character is not unlikable in “The Normal Heart.” Instead, he’s extremely passionate as he’s on a crusade to save people’s lives and make a difference. Voters will cheer for him during his heroic moments and empathize with him when he stands by his lover (played by Emmy shoo-in Matt Bomer) despite his grave illness.

The combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users for this category currently find Ruffalo in second place with 5/4 odds, behind Thornton (“Fargo”) in first place with 11/10 odds.

Editors’ Emmy predictions slugfest:
Who’ll win Best Movie/Mini Actor?

CRAZY PREDICTION #4

Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” will win Best Variety Series

Why it’s not THAT crazy:

Jimmy Fallon has a lot going against him in this category. It’s been forever since a first-year show won Best Variety Series, thanks to “Late Show with David Letterman” dominating five years in a row (1998-2002), then “Daily Show with Jon Stewart” claiming a decade’s worth (2003-2012). Last year, “The Colbert Report” finally won… on its eighth try. But if anybody can buck this trend, it’s Fallon. He’s extremely beloved in the industry, earning near-universal praise for his new version of the long-running “Tonight Show.”

As I revealed in my analysis of all the Variety Series episode entries, Fallon actually appears in three of the six nominees this year: “Tonight Show,” “Colbert Report” and “Saturday Night Live.” In fact, the “SNL” episode that’s submitted for Variety Series is the same one that Fallon won Best Comedy Guest Actor for last week. Might that be a foretelling sign of what’s to come Monday night?

The combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users for this category currently find “The Tonight Show” in second place with 13/5 odds, behind “Colbert Report” in first place with 8/15 odds.

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What do you think of my four against-the-odds predictions? Keep in mind that I still have some time to change any of these crazy choices in the Gold Derby predictions center — especially if any of your comments manage to convince me that you’re right and I’m wrong.

Out of the 26 Emmy categories being presented Monday night, Best Comedy Supporting Actor is one of the toughest. Do you agree with me that Ferguson will win his first-ever Emmy? Make your own prediction below our Editors’ slugfest for this category.

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