The industry guilds awards are terrific when it comes to predicting the Oscars, but they have a spotty track record with the Emmys. The Emmys and the guilds for producers and casting directors employ a June to May eligibility period but the rest of the guilds instead use the calendar year. This accounts for some of the variance. Still, the guilds foretell some trends, as comedies demonstrated this year.
“Orange is the New Black” was snubbed by every guild, except the WGA, the only one for which it was submitted as a comedy instead of a drama. There, it scored four nominations, enough to lead all comedies, just as it ultimately would at the Emmys (with 12).
For its first two seasons, the Emmys nominated “Veep” in just three areas: acting, casting and the show itself. This year, “Veep” retained nominations in those departments and made gains in art direction, sound mixing and writing. The guilds forecast this expansion, as they cited “Veep” for its art direction and writing for the first time.
“Girls” earned eight guild nominations last year, but fell to just one this year (casting), signaling a sharp fall in industry support that was echoed at the Emmys; the dramedy dropped from five nominations to two (lead actress Lena Dunham and supporting actor Adam Driver).
“Brooklyn Nine-Nine” was expected to be a major Emmy player after winning the Golden Globes for Best Television Series Comedy and Actor Andy Samberg and receiving TCA Award nominations for Outstanding Achievement in Comedy and Outstanding New Program; however, the sitcom reaped Emmy nominations only for supporting actor Andre Braugher and stunt coordination. It was imprudent to let the Globes and TCA influence Emmy predictions as neither organization shares members with the TV Academy while the guilds do and no guilds nominated this new laffer.
Where the guilds disagreed most with the Emmys was “The Big Bang Theory,” specifically for its direction. The DGA double-nominated the sitcom, but it was snubbed by the directors branch of the TV academy.
“Modern Family” also scored two DGA nominations and got one Emmy slot. The DGA lineup diffred dramatically from that of the Emmys with three shows contending at the latter — “Episodes,” “Louie” and “Silicon Valley” — not eligible at the DGAs as they did not air in 2013. And Emmy-nominated “Orange is the New Black” submitted at the DGA in the more-competitive drama category.
“The Big Bang Theory” and “Modern Family” benefitted from timing, as each had aired a new episode the week before DGA voting opened. Compare that to “Veep,” which was six months old by that point but had just concluded when Emmy voting began.
Below, watch Gold Derby Editors’ predictions slugfest for Best Comedy Series. We analyze the pros and cons of each nominated program and declare the winner to be “Modern Family.”
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