More than 1,700 Gold Derby readers forecasted this year’s Primetime Emmy champs, logging more than 36,000 predictions. To see how you fared, log in to your account and under your profile picture click Emmy Awards 2014.
The Emmys were highlighted by multiple repeat winners, but there were also a number of jaw-dropping surprises, particularly in the movie/miniseries races. However, despite the TV academy’s mercurial nature, a trio of users managed to predict two-thirds of the winners: JonJon893, JoseGonzalez, and PaulV all scored 66%, though JonJon893 scored the most points thanks to some savvy bets, including 200 points on Comedy Supporting Actor underdog Ty Burrell (“Modern Family“). He also predicted the surprise directing win for “Modern Family.”
But our experts also posted impressive scores, especially Gold Derby’s own Paul Sheehan, who tied our very best users with 66%. Close behind him was Joyce Eng (TV Guide) with 59%. Robert Bianco (USA Today), Steve Pond (The Wrap), and Glenn Whipp (LA Times) were next with 56%.
Ken Tucker predicted with 52% accuracy, while five others scored 49%: Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil.
Gold Derby’s editors were tightly grouped. Chris Beachum was the best among us with 52%, followed by Marcus Dixon, Matt Noble, and me with 49%, and Rob Licuria with 45%.
Overall, the toughest category to predict was Best Movie/Mini Actor: no experts or editors foresaw the shocking upset by Benedict Cumberbatch (“Sherlock: His Last Vow“), and only 2% of users did. Similarly confounding was “Sherlock” scribe Steven Moffat‘s win for Best Movie/Mini Writing: only 3% of users saw that coming.
The easiest category to predict was Best TV Movie. Despite its surprise losses in other categories, “The Normal Heart” won, as 98% of us expected. 97% of us were right to bet on “Fargo” for Best Miniseries.
Overall, the experts had the best predictions, averaging 52%. Editors were next with 48%, followed by users with 43%.