Will Golden Globe winners repeat at the Oscars?

Now that the Golden Globes have crowned Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“) and Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“), those contenders emerge as the Oscar frontrunners.

Yes, two other actors claimed Golden Globes – Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street“) and Amy Adams (“American Hustle”). However, they won in those comedy/musical categories, which usually have far less impact on the Oscars outcome.

However, if Adams and DiCaprio snag Oscar nominations, they have shots at tripping up the frontrunners. Leo, in particular, gave a commanding Globes acceptance speech, passing his Oscar audition.

And if “Hustle” wins the Academy Award for Best Picture, Adams could catch a ride, as actors often do.

We have to take the Globe results seriously. After all, last year they nailed all four of the academy’s acting picks up front and, historically speaking, they have a pretty good track record. Over the past 20 years, the Globes have foretold Oscar champs about 80% of the time.

However, these kudos have a far less impressive history of forecasting the Academy Award for Best Picture – about 60% over the past 60 years. Sure, the Globes picked “Argo” and “The Artist” over the past two years, but they had a lousy track record between 2004 and 2010. Only once did they predict the Oscars’ Best Picture (“Slumdog Millionaire,” 2008) and they didn’t even nominate “Crash” (2005).

11 thoughts on “Will Golden Globe winners repeat at the Oscars?

  1. Amy Adams wasn’t nominated for the SAG, at least not in the field of 5 for Best Actress; she was nominated in Best Comedy Actress which I don’t think helps her Oscar chances. She did manage to get a BAFTA nomination. She has surged (along with Hustle all-around) as the season has progressed. I’m confident now she’ll be in the Oscar field, but I don’t think she’ll be able to pull out the win, even if the film gets BP. Blanchett is too good!

  2. No, we don’t have to take these seriously at all. Remember, the Globes are 70-80 film critics who may inform the decision of the Academy but are not IN the Academy. All in all, it’s a boozy night on TV and not that much more.

  3. Pretty predictable night. The only award that was an upset was “Best original score.” I still think it will be near impossible for Alex Ebert to be even nominated at the oscars.

  4. But if the Oscar voting ended on Jan 8th, a few days before the Globes, how does it affect the outcome of the Oscars? Is it because the same people are also in the Academy and also vote for Oscars? I’m confused.

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