Well, looks like we won’t get much help from the Golden Globes when it comes to predicting the winner of Best Actor at the Oscars. Among our 14 Oscarologists who have made predictions for the Golden Globes, all of them are backing the bid by Michael Keaton (“Birdman“) for Best Actor (Comedy/Musical). Likewise, all of our Experts but one are forecasting that his main Oscars rival — Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) — will win Best Actor (Drama) at these precursor prizes. This overwhelming support gives them leading odds of 1 to 10 and 2 to 13 respectively to prevail on Jan. 11 at the 72nd annual edition of these kudos bestowed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.
The 13 Experts in favor of the two frontrunners are: Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier, Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) and me.
Of the other four Drama Actor nominees, David Oyelowo (“Selma“) is the only one to merit the support of any of our Experts. That lone vote from Thelma Adams translates to odds of 12 to 1 to pull off an upset. Although none of the other three nominees are predicted to win by our Experts, Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game“) has slightly better odds of 33 to 1 — versus Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher“) and Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler“) at 100 to 1 — because he is ranked higher overall.
On the Comedy/Musical side, none of the other four nominees is in first place with any of our Experts. Due to overall rankings, Ralph Fiennes (“The Grand Budapest Hotel“) is at 33 to 1 while Bill Murray (“St. Vincent”) is at 50 to 1 and both Christoph Waltz (“Big Eyes“) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Inherent Vice“) are at 100 to 1.
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