Does Iggy Azalea have chart-topping Grammy advantage for Record of the Year?

With the recent release of Billboard’s year-end top 100 singles of the year, we saw the nominees for Record of the Year once again line up with some of the year’s biggest chart-toppers.

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Four out of this year’s five nominees charted in this year’s list: “Fancy” by Iggy Azalea featuring Charli XCX was the highest charting nominee at #4. “All About That Bass” by Meghan Trainor came in at #8, followed by “Shake it Off” by Taylor Swift at #13 and “Chandelier” by Sia at #25. Sam Smith‘s original version of “Stay with Me” did chart at #10, but he is nominated in Record of the Year specifically for the “Darkchild Version” (produced by Rodney “Darkchild” Jenkins) which did not chart.

The highest charting song has won Record of the Year 16 times out of the 56 past ceremonies (28% of the time). Seven of those instances were with songs that were #1 on the year-end chart: “Nel Blu Depinto Di Blu (Volare),” by Domenico Modugno (1958), “Theme from ‘A Summer Place,'” by Percy Faith (1960), “Bridge Over Troubled Water,” by Simon & Garfunkel (1970), “The First Time I Ever Saw Your Face,” by Roberta Flack (1972), “Love Will Keep us Together,” by Captain & Tennille (1975), “Bette Davis Eyes,” by Kim Carnes (1981), “I Will Always Love You,” by Whitney Houston (1993), “Rolling in the Deep,” by Adele (2011) and “Somebody That I Used to Know,” by Gotye featuring Kimbra (2012).

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This year’s #1 song, “Happy” by Pharrell Williams, was not submitted for consideration. A live version was submitted instead and failed to get nominated.

The nine other Grammy winners that were the highest charting among the nominees were: “Mack the Knife,” by Bobby Darin in 1959 (#2), “Moon River” by Henry Mancini in 1961 (#60 the following year), “Days of Wine and Roses,” by Henry Mancini in 1963 (#48), “Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In,” by the 5th Dimension in 1969 (#2), “What’s Love Got to Do With It,” by Tina Turner in 1984 (#2), “Wind Beneath My Wings,” by Bette Midler in 1989 (#7) and “Need You Now,” by Lady Antebellum in 2010 (#2).

But despite being the highest charting of this year’s nominated songs, “Fancy” is currently in fourth place in our predictions center with 50/1 odds of winning.

The second highest charting song, “All About That Bass,” joins seven other songs (13% of winners) that have prevailed here: “Strangers in the Night” by Frank Sinatra in 1966 (#15), “It’s Too Late” by Carole King in 1971 (#3), “Killing Me Softly With His Song” by Roberta Flack (#3), “Just the Way You Are” by Billy Joel in 1978 (#17), “What a Fool Believes” by the Doobie Brothers in 1979 (#19), “Tears in Heaven” by Eric Clapton in 1992 (#6) and “All I Wanna Do” by Sheryl Crow in 1994 (#34).

It seems that Trainor is unlikely to join their company. “All About that Bass” is currently in fifth place in our predictions with 100/1 odds.

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The third highest charting song, “Shake it Off,” joins 10 previous winners (18%) who have triumphed in that position: “Mrs. Robinson” by Simon & Garfunkel in 1968 (#9), “Hotel California” by the Eagles in 1977 (#19), “Sailing” by Christopher Cross in 1980 (#32), “Rosanna” by Toto in 1982 (#14), “Beat It” by Michael Jackson in 1983 (#5), “We Are the World” by USA for Africa in 1985 (#20), “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” by Bobby McFerrin in 1988 (#37), “Another Day in Paradise” by Phil Collins in 1990 (#7), “Kiss From a Rose” by Seal in 1995 (#4) and “My Heart Will Go On” by Celine Dion in 1998 (#13).

Could this give Swift a boost? She is currently in third place according to our predictions with 25/1 odds.

This year’s lowest charting song, “Chandelier” by Sia, would join a good amount of other Record of the Year winners that have been the lowest charting of their fellow nominees. Nine champs (16%) have been in that position: “The Girl from Ipanema” by Astrud Gilberto and Stan Getz in 1964 (#51), “Up, Up and Away” by the 5th Dimension in 1967 (#47), “I Honestly Love You” by Olivia Newton-John in 1974 (#97), “This Masquerade” by George Benson in 1976 (#69), “Smooth” by Santana featuring Rob Thomas in 1999 (#19), “Beautiful Day” by U2 in 2000 (#75 the following year), “Don’t Know Why” by Norah Jones in 2002 (#97 the following year), “Clocks” by Coldplay in 2003 (#81) and “Rehab” by Amy Winehouse in 2007 (#74).

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But Sia is currently in second place according to our predictions (13/5 odds), so her position might not hurt her after all.

Our current frontrunner, Sam Smith (4/7 odds), shouldn’t worry too much. Eight past winners of Record of the Year (14%) never charted on the year-end Hot 100 at all: “I Left My Heart in San Francisco,” by Tony Bennett (1962), “A Taste of Honey,” by Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass (1965), “Graceland,” by Paul Simon (1987), “Unforgettable,” by Natalie Cole with Nat King Cole (1991), “Walk On,” by U2 (2001), “Here We Go Again,” by Ray Charles with Norah Jones (2004), “Not Ready to Make Nice,” by the Dixie Chicks (2006) and “Please Read the Letter,” by Alison Krauss and Robert Plant (2008).

The six remaining winners of Record of the Year (11%) finished fourth in their nominee group without being the lowest charting song: “Higher Love” by Steve Winwood in 1986 (#20), “Change the World” by Eric Clapton in 1996 (#19), “Sunny Came Home” by Shawn Colvin in 1997 (#39), “Boulevard of Broken Dreams” by Green Day in 2005 (#7), “Use Somebody” by Kings of Leon in 2009 (#14) and last year’s winner, “Get Lucky” by Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers (#14).

Do you think Azalea has the advantage because she has the biggest hit? Or are our odds right in predicting Sam Smith to prevail? Use our drag-and-drop menu below to make your Record of the Year predictions, or click here to predict that and other top Grammy races, with more categories to come in later days.

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