Why I predict ‘Interstellar’ will win Best Picture at the Oscars

For now, I’m going out on a limb with “Interstellar” as my frontrunner to win the Oscar for Best Picture because I walked out of last week’s screening thinking I’ve finally seen something that feels like a possible winner, and here’s why.

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Interstellar” has a big name director who has built up an Oscar IOU (Christopher Nolan has never even been nominated for directing despite frequent acclaim). It has big Oscar-friendly stars who will do great on the campaign trail (including recent champs Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway), and it might get tons of love from the steak-eaters in the academy’s tech branches. Sure it’s sci-fi, but it’s not space opera (aliens and ray guns and whatnot). It’s got its feet planted in some real scienific theory (though it undoubtedly takes liberties), and it’s got an environmentalist bent (take care of the Earth, or it will turn on mankind).

And as much as I adored “12 Years a Slave,” I’m pretty sure the only reason a sci-fi movie didn’t win last year was white guilt, so the genre isn’t a complete deal-breaker.

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Also, I’m not so sure about the other contenders. They’ve done the Clint Eastwood thing a bunch of times before, so not sure they’ll give him Best Picture again for “American Sniper” even if it’s great. “Unbroken” could be a big player, or it could be this year’s “War Horse.” “Selma” is also a big question mark. “The Imitation Game” feels important, but I don’t see it getting a directing nomination for a relative unknown like Morten Tyldum who isn’t showy behind the camera. “Birdman” is great, but it seems too weird for the win. “Gone Girl” is too pulpy. “The Theory of Everything” could play like “A Beautiful Mind,” but it’s another movie where I don’t think many will rally around that director (James Marsh) for a win. “Boyhood” may be the most viable option among the known films, but it’s a little movie with small themes about a kid, so I’m not convinced yet the industry will go as crazy for it as critics have.

So that leaves “Interstellar” for me by default, with a little fanboy wishful thinking mixed in — I think the film is astounding. It’s still early enough in the season for me to go out on a shaky limb. If it starts to sour (trashed by critics or soft box office), I might move it down or out, but I hope it doesn’t.

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10 thoughts on “Why I predict ‘Interstellar’ will win Best Picture at the Oscars

  1. You’re predicting for the same reason I am. I haven’t seen the film yet, but I can’t wait.

    How do you feel about the reviews coming in? They aren’t completely sour, the good ones are over the top raves, but there are some bad ones. If the film gets mixed praise, would that be enough to squash it? I’m not sure.

  2. The Nolan fanboys never learn. The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises and Inception. Haven’t you guys been disappointed enough? No way is this winning Best Picture.

  3. I don’t think it will win, because the academy likes character-driven films, not special effects heavy movies. Why bring up 12 years a slave with such a prejudice comment about guilt. Gravity didn’t deserve best picture at all. It didn’t even have a plot. It was completely overrated. Your prediction is wrong and completely biased

  4. 12 Years won because it had three acting nominations, a script nomination, and Brad Pitt as the producer, Gravity had a two person cast and a script that didn’t even register in any precursor. To ascribe the results to “white guilt” is profoundly offensive on all sorts of levels and frankly is beneath you, at least I thought it was.

    Nolan’s “tell, don’t show” style of screenwriting is what will consign this film to the tech awards.

  5. Nah, it’s never going to happen for Nolan. He’s got some die hard fans for sure, but not enough of them. On the flip side, there are an equal amount of people who really hate his films. I find some of his movies mildly entertaining, but Memento is really the only thing he’s ever done that’s blown me away.

  6. Hm, I don’t think it will win Best Picture, nor do I think it will be nominated. I’d rather it being replaced with “Mr. Turner” or “Whiplash”, but that’s my opinion. And I agree with the others about the white guilt comment; it’s offensive.

  7. I agree that Gravity should have won best picture last year. It co-lead with 10 nods and had the most wins with 7. It was also a box office end of the year top 10. It also happened to change the way films are made. It was a technically brilliant masterpiece. Don’t get me wrong 12 years a Slave is a great movie and could have given any movie in the past decade plus a run for its money for Best Picture. But that year it belonged to Gravity. Only two other times has a film won 7+ Academy Awards and failed to win Best Picture, Those are Star Wars(7) who lost to Annie Hall(4) and Cabaret(8) who lost to The Godfather(3).I think if you jumped to conclusions the ‘White Guilt Card’ would be easy to play. But if we know anything is that the Academy works in mysterious ways. After all Citizen Kan, which is perhaps the greatest film of all time didn’t win best picture. Also despite 9 nominations (By the way that tied it for 3rd in total nods) only garnered ONE award. But back to the actual topic of the article. I don’t think Interstellar will win Best Picture. I think it will be a contender and might win several awards, but nit the big one. Although I think that it would be a mistake to count out Nolan for Best Director. More over it takes more than a combination of good technical, design, aesthetic, writing, acting and directing to win Best Picture. A film has a soul of its own. It speaks for itself. But anyway its still a while until award season and some big name works have yet to be released. Lets wait for actual nomination to argue about who will win and why.

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