Jennifer Lawrence vs. Lupita Nyong’o: Who will win this nail-biting Oscar race?

This year’s Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress is a real nail-biter… or a real nail-smeller in the case of Jennifer Lawrence‘s character from “American Hustle.” Last year’s Best Actress champ (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“) lead the closest acting race in the derby. 

Indeed, theirs is the only one of the four acting categories that has seen more than one winner prevail at the precursors. In other words, there may well be three “locks” this year: Best Actor Matthew McConaughey” (“Dallas Buyers Club“), Best Actress Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“) and Best Supporting Actor Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”). 

While Lawrence claimed the Golden Globe, Nyong’o won the Critics’ Choice and SAG Award. And while the BAFTAs are still three weeks away, Nyong’o is the early favorite there. (Keep track of who’s won what award this derby season.)

As for the Oscars, Gold Derby polling currently finds Nyong’o favored to win with 3/10 odds with Lawrence in second place at 9/2. Third place is a tie between June Squibb (“Nebraska“) and Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County“) both with 50/1 odds, while this category’s longshot is surprise nominee Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine“) at 100/1.

The battle between Lawrence and Nyong’o is reminiscent of that Best Actress showdown from two years ago: a past Oscar winner (Meryl Streep, just like Lawrence) was locked in a tight race with the female star of a racially-themed period film (Viola Davis, just like Nyong’o).

Streep wound up winning the Oscar for “The Iron Lady,” but Davis of “The Help” made the race leading up to that big night one to remember, as the ladies flip-flopped at many of the precursor kudos. Streep won at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs; Davis prevailed at both the SAG and Critics’ Choice Awards.

Oscar voters are clearly head-over-heels about Lawrence, as they awarded her Best Actress last year and nominated her three years ago in that category for “Winter’s Bone.” And a win for Lawrence could be the only place where Oscar voters can show their support for “American Hustle,” a film they nominated 10 times.

As for Nyong’o, the academy loves putting unknown stars on the map. In fact, voters have awarded 15 Oscars to those making their film debuts. Nyong’o’s winning moment could be that devastating scene when Michael Fassbender‘s villain whips her character.

Who do you think will prevail in the tight Best Supporting Actress race? Vote below in our easy drag-and-drop menu and then sound off in the comments section below.

12 thoughts on “Jennifer Lawrence vs. Lupita Nyong’o: Who will win this nail-biting Oscar race?

  1. I don’t understand that infatuation with Lawrence. She’s a phenomenal actress, but her performance in AH, while the best in the movie, is appealing only because it seems “authentic,” in the way that we think that’s how Jennifer Lawrence really is in real life. She’s often lauded for her common girl appeal, honesty, and goofiness, but could she be playing that up a little too much? Regardless, AH is massively overrated and Lawrence’s performance, while good, gets lost in AH’s obsession with itself.

  2. I think Al summed it up nicely. Lupita was fantastic because her acting is so natural. Different than her real life personality but because she is such a great actress, it came across as realistic and effortless. Jennifer on the other hand, seemed overblown and she was obviously “acting”. It was very similar to her off-screen persona which makes it seem like she is playing herself (much like SLP). Strangely enough it also makes it seem like her off-screen persona is an acting job in itself which negates the whole “she is so real and one of us” idea.

  3. The comparison of Lawrence/Nyong’o and Streep/Davis is very weak. Streep played a historical figure and was in every scene whereas Davis was part of an ensemble. And Streep was past Oscar winner some like 30 years before whereas Lawrence just won last year. The author just wants people to think (and convince himself) that Lawrence will prevail.

  4. Lupita is the clear frontrunner. There’s no way Lawrence in winning two years in a row, at this age? Absolutely not.

    I STRONGLY disagree that McConaughey is a lock for Best Actor. Look out for DiCaprio, he’s won a Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, and it’s highly likely he’ll win the BAFTA. I think voters are ready to reward DiCaprio than McConaughey….

    They haven’t even competed in the same category really this past award season….not until Oscar night.

  5. I don’t see how this is a nail-biter race. Only award JL has won so far is GG that has like 90 international members with no over-lapping what so ever with Oscars voters. LN has won Critics Choice and SAG, that’s 2 major groups with significant Oscar voters overlapping. If JL wins, it would be a big upset.

    That link you said where there has been 15 actors winning on their first role IN RECENT YEARS. That show there has been only 2 since 1987. I would consider the past 25 years to be more than recent and 2 is a very small number to base a prediction on.

    That’s B2B articles you have written that makes no sense what so ever. Sorry but I’m not trying to be mean!

  6. i think the oscar will go to JENNIFER LAWRENCE, even when Lupita was really good, Jennifer was also great (AH is what it is, just because of her) and all oscars voters love Jennifer and she is her moment, so im pretty sure she is going to win…..

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