What do Los Angeles film critics awards mean for Oscars?

For those fans of “Birdman” fear not. Yes, your favorite film of the year was all but shut out of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. Awards but this group has a spotty record at crystal-balling the Oscars. (Read full report of their winners here.)

RELATED: ‘Boyhood’ wins four Los Angeles Film Critics Awards

Last year, the group went with two films — “Gravity” and “Her” — for Best Picture over eventual Oscar champ “12 Years a Slave.” In 2012, these left coasters named “Amour” as their favorite flick. While that French-language film went on to reap an Oscar bid, the winner of the top Academy Award was “Argo.”

Indeed, in its 39-year history, LAFCA has only predicted seven winners of the Best Picture Oscar. The last of these was Kathryn Bigelow‘s “The Hurt Locker” in 2009. Prior to that it was way back in 1993 when “Schindler’s List” ran the board, winning NYFCC, NBR and LAFCA before triumphing at the Oscars. The other Best Picture winners that were first recognized by these critics were: “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” (1975, tied with “Dog Day Afternoon” here); “Rocky” (1976, tied with “Network” here); “Kramer vs. Kramer” (1979); “Amadeus” (1984) and “Unforgiven” (1992). 

Last year, “Gravity” helmer Alfonso Cuaron became just the 12th Best Director Oscar champ that LAFCA foresaw. The 2012 L.A. champ — Paul Thomas Anderson (“The Master”) — wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars.

While the Los Angeles-based critics do much better presaging who will win the acting awards at the Oscars, this year it pushed Patricia Arquette up into lead for her performance in “Boyhood,” despite her winning a slew of prizes already in the supporting actress category. 

Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards: Complete list of winners

And while they’ve gotten Best Actor right 21 out of 39 times, their pick this year — Tom Hardy (“Locke“) — is not on Oscars radar. Last year’s winner with the L.A. crowd, Bruce Dern (“Nebraska”), did reap an Oscar bid  while 2012 pick Joaquin Phoenix was a surprise Oscar nominee for “The Master. However, 2011 L.A. winner Michael Fassbender was not nominated by the academy for any of his leading performances (“A Dangerous Method,” “Jane Eyre,” “Shame” and “X-Men: First Class”). The last time they foresaw an Oscar champ was in 2010 with Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”).

Last year, Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”) became the 14th LAFCA Best Actress winner who went on to claim the Oscar; she had tied here with Adèle Exarchopoulos (“Blue Is the Warmest Colour”) who was snubbed by the academy. The two LAFCA winners in 2012 — Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”) and Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour“) — both went on to contend at the Oscars with Lawrence prevailing. 

Fifteen of the LAFCA choices for Supporting Actor repeated at the Oscars, including last year’s winner Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”). He had tied here with James Franco (“Spring Breakers”) who was not nominated for an Oscar. Prior to that, the last LA winner to go on to an Oscar was Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”) in 2011. 

Likewise, 14 of the group’s Supporting Actress winners picked up matching Oscar bookends, the most recent of which was last year’s double champ Lupita Nyongo (“12 Years a Slave”). In 2012, LAFCA cited Amy Adams who went on to contend at the Oscars for “The Master.” In 2011,  Jessica Chastain won over the LA critics with six films: “Coriolanus,” “The Debt,” “The Help,” “Take Shelter,” “Texas Killing Fields” and “The Tree of Life.” She contended at the Oscars for “The Help” but lost to co-star Octavia Spencer

What do you think will win Best Picture at the Oscars? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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