On Monday, the New York Film Critics Circle went with “Boyhood” for Best Picture. Will its West Coast counterpart, the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., endorse this decision on Sunday when its members meet to decide on the best of the year?
The two groups of movie scribes rarely agree. The LA critics began handing out awards in 1975 but it took till 1979 till they went with the same film — eventual Oscar champ “Kramer vs. Kramer” — as the New York crowd, which was formed in 1935. They have agreed 10 more times since: “Terms of Endearment’ (1983), “Hannah and Her Sisters” (1986), “Goodfellas” (1990), “Schindler’s List” (1993), “Leaving Las Vegas” (1996), “L.A. Confidential” (1997), “Saving Private Ryan” (1998), “Sideways” (2004), “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and “The Hurt Locker” (2009).
Last year, the Gotham critics opted for “American Hustle” while the LA crowd couldn’t decide between “Gravity” and National Board of Review champ “Her.” This year, the NBR picked “A Most Violent Year” as Best Picture.
As of now, our odds are predicting that “Boyhood” will win Best Picture from the Los Angeles critics. Indeed, three of our four Editors, 14 of our Top 24 Users from last year and two-thirds of All Users are predicting it to prevail. That gives it overwhelming odds of 8 to 15, far ahead of “Birdman.” That film about an actor staging his comeback has the backing of one Editor, six of the Top 24 and 20% of All Users which translates into odds of 14 to 5.
Likewise, “Boyhood” helmer Richard Linklater is tipped to take Best Director over Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Birdman”). Three Editors, 14 of the Top 24 and two-thirds of All Users back Linkater. That translates into odds of 8 to 15 while Inarritu is in second at 12 to 5.
The race for Best Actor is led by Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) at 4/9 with Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) a distant second at 6/1. However, don’t discount NYFCC champ Timothy Spall (“Mr. Turner“) who could play spoiler.
While Best Actress Oscar frontrunner Julianne Moore (“Still Alice“) is ahead here as well with odds of 9/10, LAFCA has a history of going with foreign-language performances in this category. Hence, the strong showing by Gallic import Marion Cotillard who won over the NYFCC with the Belgian film “Two Days, One Night” and the little-seen “The Immigrant.”
J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash“) is likely to add this award to his NYFCC trophy as he has a clear lead in Supporting Actor. His odds of 9 to 10 have him well ahead of NBR winner Edward Norton (“Birdman”) who has odds of 13 to 5.
And Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) is tipped to take Supporting Actress as she did in New York, with odds of 2/9 putting her far ahead of NBR pick Jessica Chastain (“A Most Violent Year”) who is at 12/1.
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