Oscars cheat sheet: Keeping track of who’s won what acting award

By the time the Oscars finally get around on March 2, the acting races should be fairly easy to predict thanks to the horde of precursor prizes given out in the months leading up to the big ceremony.

With acting wins already bestowed by the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and Screen Actors Guild, several frontrunners have begun to emerge. Have you updated your Oscar predictions accordingly?

Below, our handy-dandy breakdown of who’s won what so far this season. I’ve also given my predictions here for each BAFTA acting race since those kudos — another telling precusor of the Oscars — don’t take place until Feb. 16.

One caveat worth mentioning: The Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards hedge their bets by having separate categories for lead comedy performances, which is where recent Oscar champs like Jean Dujardin (“The Artist,” 2011) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook,” 2012) won before making it onstage at the Dolby Theater.
 

BEST ACTOR
Oscar Nominees
Christian Bale (“American Hustle“), Bruce Dern (“Nebraska“), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street“), Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“), Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“)

Golden Globe Drama: McConaughey
Golden Globe Comedy: DiCaprio
Critics Choice Drama: McConaughey
Critics Choice Comedy: DiCaprio
SAG Winner: McConaughey

BAFTA Prediction: Since McConaughey was snubbed by BAFTA, he should be worried about taking home the Oscar, as no one’s claimed that prize without a BAFTA nom since Denzel Washington (“Training Day”) in 2001. British actor Ejiofor should win the BAFTA, making the Oscars a three-horse race between McConaughey, DiCaprio and Ejiofor.


 

BEST ACTRESS
Oscar Nominees
Amy Adams (“American Hustle“), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“), Sandra Bullock (“Gravity“), Judi Dench (“Philomena“), Meryl Streep (“August: Osage County“)

Golden Globe Drama: Blanchett
Golden Globe Comedy: Adams
Critics’ Choice Drama: Blanchett
Critics’ Choice Comedy: Adams
SAG Winner: Blanchett

BAFTA Prediction: Aussie actress Blanchett is taking this trophy in a cakewalk. She’s already a BAFTA favorite with two wins — Lead Actress (“Elizabeth,” 1998) and Supporting Actress (“The Aviator,” 2004) — and has nearly unbeatable 1/10 odds from our Experts, Editors and Users which translates to 90% of the vote.
 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Oscar Nominees
Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips“), Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle“), Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave“), Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street“), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“)

Golden Globe Winner: Leto
Critics’ Choice Winner: Leto
SAG Winner: Leto

BAFTA Prediction: Irish actor Fassbender should find luck at the BAFTAs thanks to Leto being snubbed. This is Fassbender’s third BAFTA nomination after previously losing the Rising Star Award in 2009 and Lead Actor for “Shame” in 2011, so it’s his time.
 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Oscar Nominees
Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine“), Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“), Julia Roberts (“August: Osage County“), June Squibb (“Nebraska“)

Golden Globe Winner: Lawrence
Critics’ Choice Winner: Nyong’o
SAG Winner: Nyong’o

BAFTA Prediction: Mexican-born, Kenyan-raised Nong’o has my vote for two BAFTAs this year: Supporting Actress and Rising Star Award. Her biggest competition is Lawrence but she lost the BAFTA last year for her Oscar-winning performance in “Silver Linings Plabook” to Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour“). 

Find out who wins the Oscars when Ellen DeGeneres hosts the 86th Academy Awards on March 2 on ABC. In the meantime, vote below for Oscar’s Best Actor race using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

8 thoughts on “Oscars cheat sheet: Keeping track of who’s won what acting award

  1. Broadcast critics don’t have acting cats in drama since some comedy acting nominees also appear in the “overall” acting races. Which I think is lame, if they are going to have comedy and action, etc. those nominated in those cats should not be allowed in any other acting cats. It cheapens the whole thing.

  2. I have a question: You pointed out that Matthew missing out on the BAFTA nomination will hurt his chances at Oscars. Wouldn’t the same apply to Jared Leto as well? I mean, the co-stars swept the GG/CC/SAG for both their categories, and they also both got snubbed at BAFTA, so shouldn’t they be relatively in the same boat come Oscars?

  3. Critics don’t have Comedy vs Drama. They have additional comedy categories where the nominees are still eligible overall. To include Adams with a Critics choice comedy win then you also need to include Bullock for critics choice action win

  4. @Rowan, the last time a Best Supporting Actor won the Oscar w/o BAFTA nom was in 2004, whereas in actor 2001. That’s a slight difference. In BSA this year, Jared is way out in front of runner-up Fassbender, whereas Matthew it seems not that far ahead of his competitors.

  5. DALLAS BUYERS CLUB wasn’t released in the UK until February 7, 2014. Sometimes the films don’t get nominated till the next year. Charlize Theron wasn’t nominated until the following year for MONSTER and she still won the Oscar.

  6. As Criterionopp stated, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB hasn’t been released yet in the UK so it didn’t qualify for the BAFTAs. McConaughey and Leto, therefore, were not “snubbed,” their movie just hasn’t opened yet. Denzel Washington and Charlize Theron didn’t get BAFTA nominations for the same reason, but they still went on to win the Oscar in their respective categories that year. So McConaughey and Leto not being nominated for BAFTAs does not hurt their chances in the least.

  7. I still believe Ejiofor has a shot. Denzel Washington loss both Globes, Critics, SAG, and BAFTA but still remained the winner of the Oscar over Russell Crowe. McConaughey right now is everyone’s favorite since he won 3/4…but I still will have Ejiofor in mind. Plus compared to Ejiofor’s 24 accolades, McConaughey has 14 *without runner-ups*.

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