Oscar experts: 5 of 9 Best Picture nominees will win NOTHING

The Oscar experts have spoken, and they’re in agreement that only four of this year’s nine Best Picture nominees — “Gravity,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Dallas Buyers Club” and “American Hustle” — will take home at least one trophy on March 2.

As for the other five nominees — “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Captain Phillips,” “Nebraska,” “Philomena” and “Her” — thanks for showing up, but this just wasn’t your year.

Are our Experts putting too much faith in only four movies and neglecting all of the other contenders?

Something to consider: Last year, “Beasts of the Southern Wild” was the only one of the nine Best Picture nominee to leave the Dolby Theater empty-handed, establishing 2012 as the epitome of a “sharing the wealth” year. 

However, in 2011 there were four such Oscar losers amongst the nine nominees: “The Tree of Life,” “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” “Moneyball” and “War Horse.”

In 2010, five of the 10 Best Picture nominees were skunked: “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “True Grit” and “Winters Bone.”

And in 2009, three of the 10 nominees came away with nothing: “A Serious Man,” “An Education” and “District 9.”

In other words, there is no discernable pattern in the four years since the number of nominees was changed from a set five films.

Are the Experts are wrong to put all of their eggs in only four baskets? Yes, if this is a repeat of last year but if we’re in for another year like 2010, they could be onto something.

Below, the film-by-film breakdown of how each Best Picture nominee is expected to fare, listed in descending order by how many of our 26 Oscarologists are predicting the victories.

Experts predict 7 Oscars wins:
Best Visual Effects – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Director Alfonso Cuaron – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Cinematography – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Sound Editing – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Sound Mixing – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Score – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)
Best Editing – 22 Experts (1/4 odds)

12 Years a Slave
Experts predict 3 Oscars wins:
Best Adapted Screenplay – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Supporting Actress Lupita Nyongo – 25 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Picture – 20 Experts (4/9 odds)

Dallas Buyers Club
Experts predict 3 Oscars wins:
Best Supporting Actor Jared Leto – 26 Experts (1/10 odds)
Best Actor Matthew McConaughey – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – 24 Experts (2/13 odds)

American Hustle
Experts predict 1 Oscars win:
Best Original Screenplay – 14 Experts (1/1 odds)

The Wolf of Wall Street
Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Captain Phillips
Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Experts predict 0 Oscars wins.

Do you agree with our Oscarologists’ predictions? (I sure don’t!) Sound off in the comments section below after voting for Best Picture in our easy drag-and-drop menu.

17 thoughts on “Oscar experts: 5 of 9 Best Picture nominees will win NOTHING

  1. American Hustle is not going empty handed because the strong showing at BAFTA helps get it back on course and Gravity will not win for editing because it was only 91 mins. Captain Philips should win there because it was much more editing to go with the suspense.

  2. American Hustle will take maybe best actress. The Wolf of Wall Street will go to Leonardo De Caprio. Best Supporting is Jared Leto.. Director for Gravity, Visual Effects Gravity and 12 YEARS A SLAVE BEST PICTURE

  3. Philomena could easily take Best Score, as could Her. Also, while 12 Years a Slave is the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay, it is by no means a lock. EVERY nominee in that category has won a notable precursor.

    12 Years a Slave – BFCA
    Philomena – BAFTA
    Captain Phillips – WGA
    Before Midnight – LAFCA; NSFC
    Wolf of Wall Street – NBR

  4. Spike Jonze deserves the oscar for best original screenplay much more than David O. Russell. I can see people talking about Her in ten years; I can’t see it happening to American Hustle. American Hustle is just an average movie. I hope the academy give it up trying to force everyone to think David O. Russell is a great director, because he is not!

  5. If there is justice in the world, Her is taking original screenplay. If the award was for best original hot mess first draft: then yes, Hustle would be the frontrunner. I think Nebraska and WOWS are the ones guaranteed to go home empty handed. Philomena is likely as well unless it somehow manages score. And Captain Phillips could sneak in there for editing. I have a suspicion the long shots of Gravity will actually hurt it, and we’ve seen multiple winners in editing over the recent kudos given out.

  6. Her will win Best Original Screenplay. I can’t see the bombastic and hot mess of a film that is American Hustle win.

    Captain Phillips is poised to win Best Film Editing. I can’t see Gravity win it. Did anyone really even talked about the editing of the film as much as the cinematography, acting, and visual effects? No.

  7. I agree with Sam Eckmann :). AH overrated screenplay. Great cast, average story. That’s why it’s nomination. Her is truly an inventive and “Original” screenplay if there ever was one and if the Academy wants to show it’s legitimacy for awarding great scriptwriting in this category it better be for Her. Otherwise I agree with most of what pundits share on here. Gravity will pull in film editing at the end of the day. I predict a year of most Oscar wins to technical picture Gravity 8 wins/12 YAS 3 wins–a repeat almost dating back to 1972 Oscar telecast when The Godfather prevailed over Cabaret.

  8. Her is the clear front runner in best original screenplay. With a WGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice award it looks like the stars are aligning. American Hustle would be the upset and in danger of walking home empty handed.

    Although Jennifer Lawrence is still proving to be a major threat so that may be where it wins. More likely there than screenplay category.

    And I think I’m siding with Captain Phillips for editing. If Gravity couldn’t win the Eddie or BAFTA it probably will not win it at the Oscars. The Eddie has correctly predicted the best editor 9/10 times in the last decade.

  9. Some errors in the article: in 2010 only four nominees failed to win an award (you list four but say it’s five) and in 2009, four films also failed to win anything (the fourth being Up in the Air).
    I too think Her is the favourite to win Original Screenplay, and I think Captain Phillips could pull something out of the hat. And I think Philomena has a fair shot at Original Score.

  10. The general consensus on this site is generally off. I would say Her is safely in the lead for screenplay, Gravity is NOT winning editing (put your money on Captain Phillips), and Philomena seems like a pretty prime contender for Original Score.

  11. Thanks to all these other people commenting here, I’m starting to feel better and better about switching to Captain Phillips for editing. It seems right, like it really will happen, and it’s had some momentum with the guilds, so it’s got to win something. And is Gravity really good enough that it can win seven Oscars? I’m sure many people here will say yes, but I disagree with that. But then again, I’ve always liked to be a contrarian. Gravity’s massive popularity is a huge turn-off to me.

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