Marcus Dixon: 4 crazy Oscar predictions that will make you question my sanity

In the cutthroat world of predicting the Oscars, there are followers and there are leaders. I suppose, then, that would make me a folleader, as half the time I copy other predictions and half the time I come up with my own out-of-the-box theories to help keep the race interesting.

Here are my four craziest 2013 Oscar predictions that will either make you question my sanity or have you worshipping me as America’s Next Top Oscarologist. We’ll find out how right or wrong I am on March 2 when Ellen DeGeneres hosts the 86th Academy Awards on ABC.

(And some good news for those who’ve had enough: I promise not to mention Woody Allen and/or Dylan Farrow for the entire length of this piece!)

CRAZY PREDICTION #1
Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor for “The Wolf of Wall Street

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Performance of his career? Check. Already won several precursors? Check. Appears in more than one Oscar-nominated movie this year? Check. Silver screen heartthrob? Check.

I could easily be referring to frontrunner Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“), but DiCaprio actually fits the exact same bill this year. While McConaughey got most of the early headlines, don’t forget that DiCaprio also won a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, only in the Comedy/Musical Actor races. Jean Dujardin (“The Artist“) won that same Globe two years ago before claiming Oscar gold.

Sure, DiCaprio was snubbed by SAG, but as Tom O’Neil reminds us during his newest podcast with Entertainment Weekly’s Thom Geier, the DVDs of late-release “The Wolf of Wall Street” may not have reached SAG voters in time. That happened to Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“) last year, and he still wound up winning an Oscar.

And more good news for DiCaprio: He’s nominated for the Best Actor BAFTA next week while McConaughey was snubbed. That could be his chance to finally step out of McConaughey’s shadow and into the spotlight. If he does, watch how fast everyone else will be flocking to make DiCaprio their #1 choice.

Gold Derby rankings:
DiCaprio is currently in third place behind McConaughey and Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave“).

CRAZY PREDICTION # 2
Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Supporting Actress for “American Hustle

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Yes, I know, Lupita Nyong’o is the favorite to win this race, but let’s not forget our Oscar history.

Of the 14 previous films to get nominated in all four acting races, as “American Hustle” has done, only two of those flicks — “My Man Godfrey” (1936) and “Sunset Boulevard” (1950) — didn’t win at least one trophy. (See the photo gallery of all such films here.)

History is very much on “American Hustle’s” side to win an acting race, and Lawrence is the obvious choice because fans and critics are in agreement that last year’s Best Actress winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” absolutely stole this movie. Will academy voters be too timid to reward Lawrence back-to-back Oscars? The answer is no, just ask Tom Hanks (“Philadelphia” in 1993 and “Forrest Gump” in 1994).

Gold Derby rankings:
Lawrence is currently in second place behind Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“).
 

CRAZY PREDICTION # 3
Captain Phillips” will win Best Editing

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Everyone seems to be banking on “Gravity” to win this prize in a cakewalk, but hold on, wasn’t “Gravity” just left in “Captain Phillips’s” stardust at Friday’s ACE Eddie Awards? That was a very telling declaration by the American Cinema Editors, who opted not to follow the PGA/DGA herd by rewarding “Gravity’s” editor/director Alfonso Cuaron.

And when you think about it, the many hostage scenes in “Captain Phillips” are actually made more intense thanks to the noticeable editorial cuts, compared to those elongated (and beautiful) tracking shots of “Gravity.”

Gold Derby rankings:
“Captain Phillips” is currently in second place behind “Graviy”
 

CRAZY PREDICTION # 4
The Square” will win Best Documentary Feature

Why it’s not THAT crazy:
Of the five nominees (four of which are available to stream on Netflix), “The Square” is the most relevant and feels the most important. Some of the other docs may have the early buzz and the accolades from our Oscar experts, but this is the only nominee that is so ripped-from-the-headlines it was updated months after its original January 2013 premiere to incorporate new material.

The other contenders may be too dark, too sappy, or even too boring to compete against this Netflix documentary about the ongoing Egyptian revolution.

Gold Derby rankings:
“The Square” is currently in third place behind “The Act of Killing” and “20 Feet from Stardom.”

What do you think of these predictions? Make your own for Best Actor below using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

And tell me what you think in our comments sections. Keep in mind that I can still change my choices in the Gold Derby predictions center — especially if any of your comments manage to convince me that you’re right and I’m wrong.

30 thoughts on “Marcus Dixon: 4 crazy Oscar predictions that will make you question my sanity

  1. idk, I think American Hustle is the front runner for editing. Nothing will stop matthew from winning that oscar. J. Lawrence is very much a contender(old men will vote for the white sexy woman in the fun movie vs. the black beautiful woman in the slave move) and the documentary award will go to act of killing or 20 feet of stardom

  2. For #1, which I agree on, don’t forget that 2 actors of the same gender winning for the same film doesn’t always happen, see The Help and Chicago. But then again, see Shakespeare in Love (a fluke) but also Mystic River. Also best actor was never a lock, it was still pretty open up until recently.

  3. With you on the Square, almost on lawrence and leo. Not too sure about editing, I mean yes it lost the eddie but its not like Gravity hasn’t won editing awards this year, its won several.

  4. You do realize, of course, that by even saying that you weren’t going to mention WA and DF, you actually mentioned them. Why saying anything at all was relevant to your predictions is something I don’t get.

  5. “…the same ones Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) won two years ago before claiming Oscar gold.” Dujardin did not win Critics Choice, Clooney did (for ‘The Descendants’). They also didn’t separate their categories into drama and comedy/musical at that time; that’s something they started last year.

  6. Also, if ‘Captain Phillips’ wins Best Film Editing (and I currently think it will), then it’s going to have to win something else along with it. Although ‘Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ won Editing a few years back and nothing else, it is very rare for a film to walk away with only Film Editing. In fact, the last Best Picture nominee to win for Film Editing and nothing else was ‘The Pride of the Yankees’ — all the way back in 1943. And I think the only other film to only win for Editing was ‘Bullitt’ in 1969. So ‘Captain Phillips’ will likely be taking something else along with Editing, assuming it does win that award. Best Picture and Supporting Actor are unlikely; that leaves Adapted Screenplay (which won at WGA without competition from ’12 Years a Slave’) and the two sound categories (with Sound Editing being the one it’s most likely to win). If anything other than ’12 Years’ wins Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA, then the ‘Phillips’ screenplay is likely to win the Oscar. Otherwise, look for it to take Sound Editing.

  7. The Square makes me nervous, because that is a very real possibility. You’ve just about talked me into Captain Phillips winning editing. Despite my reservations, I’ve had Jennifer Lawrence picked for awhile now, but nothing will talk me out of Matthew McConaughey winning. I’m as convinced of his win as I was of Christoph Waltz’s win last year.

  8. Leonardo dicaprio should win because he gives the best performance of the year. He should also win because he has given performance after great performance since what’s eating Gilbert grape. Matthew can get another nomination, leo has long deserved it. Honestly, the country club scene alone is a classic that even spike jonze admires.

  9. It’s Amy Adams who will win best actress– she has been nominated 5 times finally in a movie also nominated for best picture. The other four actresses already have an oscar.

  10. Im so with you on The Square! I watched it and thought: why is this not the frontrunner!? Granted I havent seen 20 Feet From stardom yet, but out of the other four it was the most gripping, intense, current and clearly laid out. I actually had to stop Act of Killing midway and said ill come back to finish this. Its really long and the subject so outrageous and grim that its a lot to take in for that amount of time.

  11. I wouldn’t classify these as crazy predictions, mostly because they all realistically can happen. Captain Phillips will walk away with the editing Oscar easily, and all the other contenders are in a close second place. If we really want to talk about left-field Oscar predictions that could actually happen, consider these:

    Philomena- Adapted Screenplay- It’s got Weinstein behind it and it has a passionate following amongst Oscar voters. It’s also the most accessible and Steve Coogan is the biggest personality amongst all the nominees.

    Despicable Me 2- Best Song- Pharrell Williams just won 4 Grammys and Universal is campaigning hard for this. It’s a refreshing change of pace from the loud bombastic nature of “Let It Go”, though that’s just my opinion. U2 winning Golden Globe for Mandela shows this could even be a 3 or 4 way race.

    The Lone Ranger- Makeup & Hairstyling- This movie got nominated for 2 Makeup & Hairstyling Guild awards to Dallas Buyers Club’s one, and if you actually look at the work in both films, regardless of quality, The Lone Ranger has the showier work. This is a big if but IF voters just judge the work and even just watch a Makeup reel, they might feel compelled to vote for this.

  12. Leo is overdue and the most deserving of the actors. Career best performance in WOW which has now grossed over $100 million domestically. Leo gives great speeches. Enough of Cate Blanchett, she is so pretentious on the carpets and in speeches. She has drank the cool-aid and has magic mirror going on. Please anyone but her win Best Actress.

  13. He’s not inhaling, but probably the one drinking something … who cares. Leo is due, 3 previous nominations (and a couple performances not nominated that deserved to be). There is nothing crazy about picking Jennifer Lawrence, everyone says at least one of the Hustle actors has to win, I still think it’s a reach. I’ve had Captain Philips all along in Editing, the Academy is usually pretty generous in dispersing at least one award to nominated pictures.

  14. Predicting Leo isn’t crazy; predicting JLaw is. Her American Hustle character is just SLP, 2nd verse; it’s not another angle deserving of a second Oscar (like Hanks or Jason Robards), OR making up for past performances that shoulda won (like Hepburn or Tracy), OR a booby prize just before being thrown out of Hollywood (like Luise Rainer). Trust me: JLaw will *NOT* win this year!

  15. Dallas Buyers Club was eligible for BAFTA this year, look it up … and one would be crazy or in denial to think Jennifer Lawrence does NOT stand a good chance of winning her second Oscar. It was the pivotal role and standout performance in a spectacular cast. She totally delivered, and is young, HOT (*both career and looks), and that is a definite advantage with the 70 % older, white male voting block.

  16. Waltz wasn’t nominated for SAG last year cause they had him as Lead Actor there.

    All predictions are not that that crazy. O’Neill and Hammond has said that Leo is possible upset if he wins BAFTA. If you had predicted CP for Edit before the Eddie, I would have given you credit for it. Can’t see JLaw winning for 2nd year in a row, her not showing for luncheon today is sign of her resigning to it. Guessing she’s filming but would have shown up if she thinks she still has a chance. JLaw and Lupita has been going to H2H at all awards and only win for JLaw has been GG and don’t see her winning at BAFTA either.

  17. ‘Films that open between 1 January and 14 February 2014 inclusive may be ‘qualified’ by Distributors by being screened to Academy Film Voting Members by 19 December 2013.’ – BAFTA website. Therefore Dallas Buyers Club was not automatically eligible. Anyone know if it was screened to BAFTA members before 19th Dec?

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