“American Hustle” and “Her” are out front to win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, according to the racetrack odds set by our Experts’ predictions. But, beware: any one of the three remaining nominees are within striking distance of potential upset.
That’s because all five contenders are also up for Best Picture, which is usually key to winning here. Over the past 10 years this category has been claimed by a Best Picture nominee nine times. The one exception: “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” shot down “The Aviator” in 2004.
“American Hustle” may seem to have the edge because it, unlike “Her,” has a serious chance to win Best Picture, but voters sometimes laugh off comedies. However, that didn’t hurt past champs like “Midnight in Paris” and “Juno.” All of those winners – plus “Eternal Sunshine” – have something in common with “Her“: they’re extremely daring, creatively speaking. That is, they’re original screenplays of notable originality.
“Dallas Buyers Club” is a serious threat because it has the most crusading social and political message thanks to its expose of the medical establishment blocking medicines that could’ve benefitted AIDs patients. “Nebraska” can’t be discounted, having widespread academy support in six categories.