After that onslaught of nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics’ Choice, let’s take a deep breath and consider what they all mean.
A staggering 18 lead and supporting players reaped bids with all three of these precursor prizes. How likely are they to number among the 20 performers who earn Oscar nominations?
Turns out, the odds are in their favor but not as overwhelmingly as they once were.
In the first 18 years since the the Critics Choice kudos came on the scene in 1995, there were only 11 instances when a performer who had been nominated for all three of these awards did not go on to contend at the Oscars. However, last year, three of the 17 performers with bids across the board were snubbed at the Oscars: leads Tom Hanks “Captain Phillips” and Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks”) and supporting player Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”).
Conversely, 14 Oscar nominations (of the 380 across the four acting categories) went to folks who had not contended for any of these prizes first. The most recent of these was Jonah Hill last year for “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
So, where are we at this year? Let’s take a closer look at each of the acting races by examining who has run the board so far and who could still pull off a surprise on Oscar nominations morning.
All but Gyllenhaal are in our top five for Oscars; he ranks sixth but is coming on strong against Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher“) who was snubbed by the BFCA but has SAG and Globe nominations. And while David Oyelowo (“Selma“) was likewise overlooked by SAG after screeners were not sent to the nominating committee, he does contend at the Critics’ Choice and Globes. (An earlier version of this post omitted his BFCA bid.)
This lineup mirrors our top five for Oscars. Can anyone break through and, if so, who is the most vulnerable among this quintet?
Sixth-ranked Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”) did reap a Globe bid over on the comedy/musical side, but was snubbed by SAG and the BFCA. But remember, this happened to her last year as well with “American Hustle” but she still reaped an Oscar bid.
It is no surprise that critics’ darling Marion Cotillard (“Two Days One Night) nabbed the sixth slot with the BFCA despite snubs from SAG and the Globes. Can this one-time Oscar champ (“La Vie en Rose”), who we have ranked seventh at the Oscars, contend there for a second time?
All of these featured fellows make it onto our top five for Oscars. The only vulnerable contender is Duvall, who is in a film that is less likely to make the Best Picture lineup than the others.
So, who could bump him at the Oscars? The most likely candidates are Tom Wilkinson for his bravura performance as President Lyndon Johnson in “Selma” and two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz for his sizeable supporting role in “Big Eyes.” Remember, he was snubbed by both SAG and the BFCA two years ago for “Django Unchained” before winning the Oscar.
These four all appear on our top five for Oscars. So, who could get that fifth slot?
Currently, we have Laura Dern (“Wild”) in position to earn her second Oscar nomination 23 years after contending in lead for “Rambling Rose.” However, she is vulnerable after being blanked by these three precursor prizes.
In sixth place and coming on strong is Jessica Chastain who reaped both BFCA and Globe bids for “A Most Violent Year” but was snubbed by SAG.
Who do you think will make the grade with Oscar voters for Best Actor? Cast your vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu.