Before the academy introduced the convoluted new system by which five to ten nominees would be chosen as Best Picture nominees in 2011, their accountants tested it using the ballots from 2001 to 2008. They found that had this new system been in place, it would have resulted in years with five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.
In both 2011 and 2012, there were nine Best Picture nominees. Will there be that many — or even 10 — this year?
While 2013 was a strong year for film, delving into the data reveals that another large lineup may not be such a foregone conclusion or even a probable one.
That a lineup of 10 nominees never occurred when the numbers were run for 2001 – 2008 suggests this outcome is unlikely for 2013. We know that at least four of the eight years would have had five, six, seven and eight nominees respectively.
While It is possible that the other four all would have had nine nominees, what are the chances that there will be a third consecutive year with this number if at least those four yielded some other number?
Vote below in our poll and then predict the Best Picture lineup using our easy drag-and-drop menu.