Oscars experts predict Best Picture: ‘Birdman,’ ‘Selma’ move up; ‘Unbroken’ dips

Boyhood,” which has led the Best Picture Oscars race all season long, solidified its frontrunner status with its strong showing Monday with the New York Film Critics Circle. This labor of love, 12 years in the making, won Best Picture, Director (Richard Linklater) and Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette) from the Gotham critics.

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in 19 categories

With the backing of 18 of our 26 Experts, “Boyhood” now has odds of 4/1 to win Best Picture. The pundits picking it to prevail areThelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Dave Karger (Fandango), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood),  Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere, Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) and me.

However, watch out for two films that are rising in the ranks: “Birdman,” which moves up one slot to second place with odds of 15/2, and “Selma,” which has jumped up two slots and is now tied for third with “The Imitation Game” at odds of 8/1.  

While “Birdman” has the backing of only one of our Experts — Mary Milliken (Reuters) — the rest of us are ranking it high enough on our lists that it now sits solidly in second. 

Selma” now has first place votes from three of our Oscarologists — Mike Cidoni (AP),  Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) and Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) — while “The Imitation Game” has the support of Edward Douglas (Comingsoon). They are tied in the odds because “Selma” is ranked second by just three Experts while “The Imitation Game” occupies that slot on six of our ballots. 

And while “Unbroken” remains the top pick of three of our pundits — Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), and Tariq Khan (Fox News),Jenelle Riley (Variety) — it has slipped in the rankings of our other Experts and is now in fifth place with odds of 9/1.  

See latest Oscar rankings when the Experts’ predictions are combined

Our 26 Experts are predicting “Boyhood” to win five Academy Awards in all: Best Picture, Best Director (Richard Linklater), Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette), Original Screenplay and Editing. 

Interstellar” is expected to take home three Oscars: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. 

Into the Woods” also is predicted to prevail in three categories (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design).

Birdman” will claim two Academy Awards — Best Actor (Michael Keaton), Cinematography.

Still Alice” is predicted to win Best Actress for four-time Oscar bridesmaid Julianne Moore while Whiplash” should net an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor J.K. Simmons, “The Imitation Game” is forecast to win Adapted Screenplay and “Unbroken” should take Score. 

Click here to see how they rank contenders in top Oscar races. Click here to see the rankings and odds generated by combining the experts’ predictions.

Below: The experts’ latest collective rankings and odds for the top six categories (click on each category to see more detailed results). 

Best Picture
1.  “Boyhood” – 4/1
2.  “Birdman” – 15/2
3.  “Selma” – 8/1
4.  “The Imitation Game” – 8/1
5.  “Unbroken” – 9/1
6.  “The Theory of Everything” – 10/1
7.  “Gone Girl” – 20/1
8.  “Foxcatcher”– 20/1
9.  “Whiplash” – 20/1
10. “Interstellar” – 33/1

Change from last week: “Birdman” moves up one place while “Selma” and “Unbroken” switch slots and odds. 

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” – 9/4
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman” – 10/3
3. Ava DuVernay, “Selma”– 13/2
4. Angelina Jolie, “Unbroken” – 15/2
5. David Fincher, “Gone Girl” – 16/1

Change from last week: Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) has strengthened his position while Ava DuVernay (“Selma”) and Angelina Jolie (“Unbroken”) switch spots. 

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman” – 9/4
2. Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything” – 13/5
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game” – 11/2
4. David Oyelowo, “Selma” – 13/2
5. Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher” – 12/1

Change from last week: The standings remain the same but David Oyelowo (“Selma) shortens his odds while Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”) drops back slightly. 

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” – 17/10
2. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild” – 10/3
3. Rosamund PIke, “Gone Girl” – 13/2
4. Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything” – 15/2
5. Amy Adams, “Big Eyes” 20/1

Change from last week: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) has strengthened her lead while Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”) has seen her odds lengthen yet again. 

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” – 13/8
2. Edward Norton, “Birdman” – 10/3
3. Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood” – 6/1
4. Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher” – 6/1
5.Tom Wilkinson (“Selma”) – 25/1

Change from last week: Ethan Hawke (“Boyhood”) and Mark Ruffalo (“Foxcatcher”) switch spots and Tom Wilkinson (“Selma”) has slightly better odds. 

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood” – 15/8
2. Emma Stone, “Birdman” – 11/2 
3. Laura Dern, “Wild” – 5/1
4. Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game” – 13/2
5. Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods” – 15/2

Change from last week: Emma Stone (“Birdman) and Laura Dern (“Wild) swap places while Meryl Streep (“Into the Woods”) gets much better odds. 

What are your early Oscar predictions? Make your picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Picture champ using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Golden Globes, Grammys, “Survivor,” “The Voice,” “Dancing with the Stars” and more.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More News from GoldDerby

Loading