Oscars experts: Eddie Redmayne closes Michael Keaton’s lead, ‘Selma’ in second for Best Picture

Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) continues to narrow the lead long held by Michael Keaton (“Birdman“) in the Best Actor race. Now backed by 10 of our 26 Oscarologists, he has odds of 13 to 5 to win Best Actor for his portrayal of wheelchair bound scientist Stephen Hawking. Keaton, with the support of 14 Experts, has odds of 9 to 4 to prevail on Oscar night for his performance as an actor on the comeback trail. 

Benedict Cumberbatch is ranked first by two of our Experts for his work in the WWII spy drama “The Imitation Game.” That support from Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com) and Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) gives him odds of 11/2. 

The 14 Experts in Keaton’s corner are: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Thom GeierTariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Mary Milliken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire),  Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

The 10 Experts touting Redmayne are: Mike Cidoni (AP),  Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times) and me. 

In the Best Picture race, “Boyhood” (odds of 4/1) remains far out front with the support of 18 of our 26 pundits.”Selma” has jumped to second based on the backing of four Oscarologists and shares odds of 15/2 with “Birdman,” which has one booster. The Imitation Game” has one vote and odds of 8/1 while  “Unbroken” has two votes and odds of 9/1. (These odds are determined by the rankings of our Experts of each film on their list of top 10. For example, “Selma” has the first place votes of four Experts while “Birdman” has just one but among the rest of the Experts, “Birdman” is ranked higher than “Selma” often enough to equalize the odds.) 

Click here to see charts revealing how all of our Experts rank the contenders in all top categories according to likelihood of winning. And click on each underlined category below to see the individual Experts predictions for that race. Then make your own predictions here. Be the best and win bragging rights AND $1,000. 

See latest Oscar rankings when the Experts’ predictions are combined

Our 26 Experts are predicting “Boyhood” to win five Academy Awards in all:  Best Picture, Best Director (Richard Linklater), Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette), Original Screenplay and Editing. 

Interstellar” is expected to take home four Oscars: Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. 

Into the Woods” also is predicted to prevail in three categories (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design).

Birdman” will claim two Academy Awards — Best Actor (Michael Keaton), Cinematography.

Still Alice” is predicted to win Best Actress for four-time Oscar bridesmaid Julianne Moore while Whiplash” should net an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor J.K. Simmons, and “The Imitation Game” is forecast to win Adapted Screenplay. 

Click here to see how they rank contenders in top Oscar races. Click here to see the rankings and odds generated by combining the experts’ predictions.

Below: The experts’ latest collective rankings and odds for the top six categories (click on each category to see more detailed results). 

Best Picture
1.  “Boyhood” – 4/1
2.  “Selma” – 15/2
3.  “Birdman” – 15/2
4.  “The Imitation Game” – 8/1
5.  “Unbroken” – 9/1
6.  “The Theory of Everything” – 10/1
7.  “Foxcatcher” – 20/1
8.  “Gone Girl”– 20/1
9.  “Whiplash” – 20/1
10. “Interstellar” – 33/1

Change from last week: “Selma” moves up into a tie with “Birdman.” 

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater, “Boyhood” – 9/4
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman” – 10/3
3. Ava DuVernay, “Selma”– 11/2
4. Angelina Jolie, “Unbroken” – 10/1
5. David Fincher, “Gone Girl” – 16/1

Change from last week: Ava DuVernay (“Selma”) has strengthened her position while Angelina Jolie (“Unbroken”) and David Fincher (“Gone Girl”) sees their odds lengthen. 

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, “Birdman” – 9/4
2. Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything” – 13/5
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game” – 11/2
4. David Oyelowo, “Selma” – 13/2
5. Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher” – 12/1

Change from last week: The standings remain the same but Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) has improved his odds. 

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, “Still Alice” – 17/10
2. Reese Witherspoon, “Wild” – 10/3
3. Rosamund PIke, “Gone Girl” – 13/2
4. Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything” – 15/2
5. Hilary Swank, “The Homesman”  – 20/1

Change from last week: Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”) lost her slot to Hilary Swank (“The Homesman”).  

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” – 13/8
2. Edward Norton, “Birdman” – 10/3
3. Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood” – 6/1
4. Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher” – 6/1
5.Tom Wilkinson (“Selma”) – 25/1

Change from last week: The standings and odds remain the same. 

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood” – 9/5
2.  Laura Dern, “Wild” – 11/2 
3. Emma Stone, “Birdman” – 6/1
4. Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game” – 15/2
5. Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods” – 15/2

Change from last week: Emma Stone (“Birdman) and Laura Dern (“Wild) swap places while Keira Knightley (“The Imitation Game”) gets slightly longer odds. 

What are your Oscar predictions? Make your picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Picture champ using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Golden Globes, Grammys, “Survivor,” “The Voice,” and more.

2 thoughts on “Oscars experts: Eddie Redmayne closes Michael Keaton’s lead, ‘Selma’ in second for Best Picture

  1. I just wish Birdman could sweep the entire awards season. It’s definitely one of the most original and thoughtful pieces of filmmaking we had this year. But I really love Boyhood, it’s a simply phenomenal film and it feels really great that it ranks so high to everyone’s predictions this year. What’s really impressive is the way Patricia Arquette has catapulted herself as an Oscar favorite this year. Don’t get me wrong, I loved, absolutely LOVED Patricia Arquette’s performance in Boyhood, she gave a consistently genuine portrayal of a woman trying to handle the decisions she took for herself and her family but personally I’m not sure Patricia Arquette’s otherwise sublime performance in Linklater’s masterpiece is the kind of performance Academy voters would prefer. I hate to say this, but it feels like a little too understated work to draw Academy’s attention THAT much. But she definitely deserves a win for her incredible turn there. I just doubt the fact that she’s going to remain that much of a favorite in everyone’s predictions as she seems to be now until the Oscar ceremony. Meryl Streep seems to be giving the kind of flashy performance Academy voters usually love. J. K. Simmon’s performance in Whiplash is simply hypnotic. If he doesn’t win, it will be shocking for a whole lot of people. Michael Keaton delivers a tour de force of a performance in Birdman and it would be fantastic if he would finally end up winning in the Best Actor category. The astonishing Julianne Moore is the clear frontrunner in Still Alice and it feels great for sure since not only is a tremendous and long overdue for a win actress (I could think at least of five films – Safe, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Far From Heaven, The Hours – for which she deserved to score a win. She gives her all in Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland’s film and she would be a totally deserving winner. Personally, I think that the best female performance of the year is the one of the criminally underrated from The Oscars since her win back in 2008 Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night, but she doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to score a nomination again. Pretty much anyone who saw Dardennes Brothers’ latest film seems to feel the exact way and she’s an exceptional actress, so that’s what truly matters. Rosamund Pike would be such a worthy winner also. My God, she just kills it as Amy Elliott Dunne in David Fincher’s masterful Gone Girl. Her performance really floored me. To me, a Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) nomination or a Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) seems so much more deserving than Angelina Jolie’s for Unbroken. An Inarritu win would be more than welcome, but the same goes for Linklater’s impeccable work in Boyhood. This race looks pretty exciting.

  2. Honestly, other movies, like Snowpiercer, Nightcrawler, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Mr. Turner, are much more deserving of Best Picture slots instead of Unbroken and Interstellar. But that’s just my opinion.

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