The five frontrunners for Oscar nominations are the same quintet up for Best Actress (Drama) at the Golden Globes, with Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) predicted to prevail in both races. Her Globes competition is: Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”), Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything”), Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”) and Reese Witherspoon (“Wild”).
Among our 14 Oscarologists who have made predictions for the Golden Globes, a dozen of them are backing the bid by Moore for Best Actress (Drama). This overwhelming support gives her leading odds of 1 to 4 to prevail on Jan. 11 at the 72nd annual edition of these kudos bestowed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.
Moore, who shared in a special prize to the cast of “Short Cuts” in 1993, has lost all six of her previous individual Globe bids for her movie work; she did win TV Movie/Mini Actress in 2012 for playing politician Sarah Palin in “Game Change.” This year, she also contends for Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) for her bravura turn in “Maps to the Stars.” While that offbeat film won her Best Actress at Cannes, she is a longshot to take this prize at the Globes, with Emily Blunt (“Into the Woods“) a solid frontrunner.
The 12 Experts in favor of Moore on the drama side are: Thelma Adams, Thom Geier, Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) and me.
Of the other four Drama Actress nominees, Witherspoon is the only one to merit the support of any of our Experts. Those two votes from Edward Douglas (ComingSoon) and Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) translates to odds of 11 to 2 for her to pull off an upset at these precursor prizes. She won the most recent of her three Comedy/Musical Actress bids in 2005 for “Walk the Line” and went on to claim the Oscar too.
While none of the other three nominees is predicted to win by our Experts, Aniston (the 2002 TV Comedy Actress champ for “Friends”) and Pike have slightly slightly better odds of 50 to 1 — versus Jones at 100 to 1 — because they are ranked higher overall.
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