What can we expect when the Producers Guild of America announces nominees for Best Picture on Monday, Jan. 5 (three days before Oscar balloting closes)?
When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of American followed suit. And while the academy shifted to a sliding scale four years ago, the PGA stuck with 10 contenders. That has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at predicting the eventual Oscars roster with it previewing 40 of the 47 (i.e., 85%) of the Best Picture nominees.
Last year, eight of the PGA nominees made the cut with academy: eventual Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave,” as well as “Gravity” (which had tied with it at the PGA), “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club” “Her,” “Nebraska,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” The other two PGA contenders — “Blue Jasmine” and “Saving Mr. Banks” — were snubbed by the academy. Rather, Brit hit “Philomena” was the ninth Oscar nominee.
In 2012, eight PGA nominees also reaped bids for the top Academy Award — “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” Rounding out the roster at the PGA were “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Skyfall.” The guild snubbed the French-language “Amour,” which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. “Argo” prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar.
In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including “The Artist” which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Ides of March” while the Oscars went with “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life.”
In 2010, the PGA foresaw nine of the eventual 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. The guild went for “The Town” while the academy opted for “Winter’s Bone” for the tenth slot. Both groups chose “The King’s Speech” as the Best Picture of the year.
And in 2009, the Oscars concurred with the PGA on eight of the 10 contenders. PGA nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over Oscar choices “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” Both groups picked as best pic “The Hurt Locker.”
The PGA champ will be crowned on Jan. 24, 13 days before final Oscar voting begins. The PGA uses the same system as the Oscars — the preferential ballot — for the final vote. All seven of the most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 18 of the most recent 25 Best Picture champs.
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