Last September, Oprah Winfrey (“The Butler“) was the far-away frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar according to Gold Derby’s 2013 racetrack odds. She seemed like such a lock for the Oscar that Expert Tariq Khan (Fox News) even wrote up 5 reasons why Oprah would win. Unfortunately for Winfrey, she was snubbed on nominations morning; the trophy eventually went to Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave“).
Let that be a lesson to all of the Oscar watchers out there. Even though Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood“) currently has the overwhelming support of our Experts, Editors and Users to win Best Supporting Actress, there are still several months to go this Oscar derby. Just like Winfrey did last year, could Arquette be peaking too soon?
There is strong sense of groupthink that often occurs amongst critics and Oscarologists every season. Usually, once an awards contender is declared the frontrunner, more and more predictors jump on the bandwagon. That’s how the Winfrey snafu happened last year. She was perceived as the frontrunner early on in the Oscar derby thanks to “The Butler’s” summer release date. This year, “Boyhood” came out relatively early, making Arquette’s performance one of the few that everyone has probably seen already. Could that be the reason why she’s Gold Derby’s odds-on favorite to win?
As of this writing, 14 Experts predict Arquette will win. Two Experts — Khan and Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly) — are throwing their support at Laura Dern (“Wild“) while Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) stands alone in predicting Emma Stone (“Birdman“). Meanwhile, all 7 Editors and 18 of the Top 24 Users are also casting their votes for Arquette.
When all of these stats are combined, Arquette has leading odds of 9/5 to win her very first Oscar. Second place goes to Dern with 11/2 odds, third place is Stone with 15/2 odds, fourth place is Meryl Streep (“Into the Woods“) with 10/1 odds, fifth place is Keira Knightley with 10/1 odds and sixth place is Vanessa Redgrave (“Foxcatcher“) with 25/1 odds.
Do you think Arquette is a shoo-in to win the Oscar, or has she peaked too soon? Cast your votes for Best Supporting Actress below using our easy drag-and-drop menu, then sound off in the comments section.