Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly) was the first Oscarologist on the planet to put “12 Years a Slave” in the top spot of Best Picture predictions. Five months later he has it there now and he explains why in our podcast chat.
“I saw the movie a little bit earlier than a lot of other people did and I just knew right away that this was the kind of prototypical Oscar movie with the heft, the seriousness of purpose and a really moving story well told,” he explains. “It felt like pure Oscar bait so it planted it flag early as the contender to beat. A couple other things bubbled up since then – ‘Gravity,’ ‘American Hustle‘ and ‘The Wolf of Wall Street‘ – but I think it still stands as the prototypical Oscar movie of the year.”
But can any of those rivals now beat “12 Years a Slave“?
“It becomes a numbers game,” he replies. “The Best Picture race is the only one with the weighted voting system. There could be an upset in this category. It wouldn’t shock me. I think it is a tight race between ‘12 Years a Slave,’ ‘Gravity’ and ‘American Hustle’ and where ’12 Years’ is put on the ballot – at number 1, 2, 3 or 4 – will make all the difference in the world in terms of who is called to the podium at the end of the night.”