Reese Witherspoon has gotten a head start in this year’s Oscar race for Best Actress. Her latest film, “Wild,” has been shown at the Telluride and Toronto film festivals in advance of its December 5 release, and it earned strong reviews at both events. As a result, she has taken the lead in our experts’ Oscar predictions; two weeks ago, Amy Adams (“Big Eyes“) was their favorite.
Witherspoon and Adams both have the benefit of playing biographical roles, which the academy loves. In “Wild,” Witherspoon stars as Cheryl Strayed, who decided to hike more than a thousand miles following years of addiction and reckless behavior. And in “Big Eyes,” Adams plays painter Margaret Keane, who fought her husband to take credit for her own work. Both actresses are backed by six experts apiece, though Witherspoon gets slightly better odds due to her higher rankings from other experts.
But that’s not the end of the story. Adams still has the lead in our overall predictions, which combine our experts’ odds with those of our editors, users, and top 24 users, and all of those groups still favor Adams. Will those predictors soon join our experts in predicting Witherspoon, already an Oscar-winner for “Walk the Line” in 2005, or will they continue to bet on Adams to finally win after five previous losses?
Take a look at the graph below to see how Withserspoon has taken the lead with our experts (click the graph to see more):
But the following graph shows our overall predictions. Adams still has the lead there, but Witherspoon is catching up (click the graph to see more):
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