The film industry guild awards are considered good prognosticators for the Oscars; after all, their voting memberships overlap. So, how would you have fared if you had just gone with the guild winners this year to formulate your Oscar predictions?
Eighteen categories have equivalent categories at the guild awards; those that do not are Foreign Language Film, Score, Song and the three categories for Best Short.
The guilds forecast winners in 14 of the 18 categories this year. That is markedly better than last year’s when they went 11 for 17 as well as 2011 when they foresaw just 9 of the 17 Oscar winners. The Makeup Artists and Hairstylists Guild just started handing out awards again this year after a decade-long hiatus.
SCREEN ACTORS GUILD
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club“
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine“
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyongo, “12 Years a Slave“
WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, “Her”
John Ridley’s Best Adapted Screenplay for “12 Years a Slave” was ineligible as he resigned from the guild in the wake of the 2007 strike; Billy Ray won for “Captain Phillips.”
ART DIRECTORS GUILD
Best Production Design (Period Film): “The Great Gatsby”
AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity”
CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY
Best Sound Mixing (Live Action Film): “Gravity”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLISTS GUILD
Best Period/Character Makeup: “Dallas Buyers Club”
MOTION PICTURE SOUND EDITORS
Best Sound Editing (Sound Effects and Foley): “Gravity”
VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY
Best Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Film: “Gravity”
Best Animated Feature: “Frozen“
So, where did the guilds differ, besides at the WGA?
COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD
The CDG bestows trophies to three different genres of film. “12 Years a Slave” (the only one of the three CDG winners to reap an Oscar bid) defeated eventual Oscar winner “The Great Gatsby” for Best Period Film.
AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS
Best Editing: “Captain Phillips” (Best Drama) and “American Hustle” (Best Musical or Comedy). The Oscar went to “Gravity” (an ACE Drama nominee).
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Documentary Feature: “We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks.” The Oscar went to PGA snubbed “20 Feet from Stardom.”