The Producers Guild of America has a pretty good track record presaging the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. Since it began handiing out prizes in 1989, It first feted 17 of the 24 Oscar champs, including the last seven in a row.
But how does it do when it comes to forecasting which Documentary Feature will win the Academy Award?
This year’s five nominees for the PGA prize are:
“The Green Prince”
“Merchants of Doubt”
Since the PGA began giving out this award in 2007, it has honored three of the seven films that went on to win the Oscar while three of its champs were snubbed outright by the academy and one contended there but was defeated.
2007: “Sicko” (lost Oscar to “Taxi to the Dark Side”)
2008: “Man on Wire”
2009: “The Cove”
2010: “Waiting for ‘Superman'” (not nominated at Oscars)
2011: “Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest” (not nominated at Oscars)
2012: “Searching for Sugar Man”
2013: “We Steal Secrets: The Story of Wikileaks” (not nominated at Oscars)
And just how many of the PGA nominees reaped Oscar bids?
Of the 33 PGA contenders over the past seven years, only eight have gone on to compete at the Oscars.
Of five 2007 PGA nominees: “Sicko” contends at Oscars
Of three 2008 PGA nominees: “Man on Wire” wins Oscar and “Trouble the Water” contends;
Of four 2009 PGA nominees: “The Cove” wins Oscar and “Burma VJ” contends;
Of six 2010 PGA nominees: “Inside Job” wins Oscar;
Of five 2011 PGA nominees: none contend at Oscars;
Of five 2012 PGA nominees: “Searching for Sugar Man” wins Oscar and “The Gatekeepers” contends; and
Of five 2013 PGA nominees: none contend at Oscars.
The PGA will reveal the eligible producers of these films on Jan. 5 when it unveils the nominees in the other film and TV movie categories. Winners will be announced during a Jan. 24 ceremony at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.
The academy will announce the 15 Documentary Features that made it to the semi-finals in early December.