Although the Oscars shifted to a sliding scale two years ago, the PGA has stuck with 10 nominees for Best Picture. That has helped it maintain an 80% success rate at predicting the eventual slate of Oscar contenders.
Over the past four years, 32 of the PGA nominees have gone on to reap Oscar bids (as detailed below). As its membership also include TV producers, this may skew the slate of nominated fare.
However, the PGA uses the same system as the Oscars — the preferential ballot — for the final vote. All four of the most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 17 of the most recent 24 Best Picture champs.
This year, eight of our predicted top 10 contenders at the Oscars made the cut with these kudos, including frontrunners “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” as well as “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Nebraska,” “Saving Mr. Banks” and “Her.”
Two of our predicted Oscar nominees — “Inside Llewyn Davis,” (#7 on our odds chart) and popular fare “The Butler” (#10) — were snubbed in favor of SAG ensemble nominee “Dallas Buyers Club” (#11) and “Blue Jasmine” (#13 ).
Of last year’s PGA contenders, eight of them also reaped bids for the top Academy Award — “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” Rounding out the roster at the PGA were “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Skyfall.” The guild snubbed the French-language “Amour,” which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. “Argo” prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar.
In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including “The Artist” which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Ides of March” while the Oscars went with “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life.”
Three years ago, the PGA foresaw nine of the eventual 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. The guild went for “The Town” while the academy opted for “Winter’s Bone” for the tenth slot. Both groups chose “The King’s Speech” as the Best Picture of the year.
In 2009, the Oscars concurred with the PGA on eight of the 10 contenders. PGA nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over Oscar choices “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” Both groups picked as best pic “The Hurt Locker.”
The silver anniversary edition of these kudos takes place on Jan. 19 at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.
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