Will there be another shocking Supporting Actor split between SAG & Oscar?

The SAG Awards and Oscars usually match closely when it comes to the individual acting awards, though not so much when it comes to SAG’s Ensemble race and Oscar’s Best Picture, which agree less than half of the time. But there has been plenty of room for surprises in Best Supporting Actor.

Is it possible to win Best Actor Oscar without taking SAG first?

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75% of SAG nominees for Supporting Actor repeat at the Oscars (75 out of 100), but a mere 60% of winners (12 out of 20) match up. Compare that to Best Actor, where the two groups agree on 81% of nominees and 80% of winners. For Best Actress, 81% of nominees and 70% of winners line up.

Past SAG champs do battle for Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon …

Luckily for this year’s crop of SAG hopefuls, the two races have been in sync lately: only one of the last seven SAG champs failed to repeat at the Oscars.

But that exception was a big one: in 2012, one of the most uncertain Oscar races in recent years, Tommy Lee Jones won SAG for “Lincoln,” but the Oscar went to Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained,” even though Waltz wasn’t nominated at the SAG Awards, making it the first and only time to date the Oscar winner in that race was snubbed entirely by SAG.

So this year’s SAG hopefuls should still keep their fingers crossed.

Because of SAG’s usually close correlation with Oscar, it’s no surprise that we find many of the same names among this year’s top contenders at both events.

Veteran character actor J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash“) is a five-time SAG nominee, but all for Best TV Drama Ensemble for his work on “The Closer“; he has yet to earn an individual nomination.

Why do only half of SAG’s Best Ensemble champs go on to win Best Picture Oscar?

Edward Norton (“Birdman“) has earned a pair of Oscar nominations, but he’s still waiting for his first SAG bid. Albert Brooks (“A Most Violent Year“) is also in search of his first SAG recognition. Mark Ruffalo (“Foxcatcher“) picked up a pair of nods (Supporting Actor and Film Ensemble) for “The Kids Are All Right.”

Ethan Hawke (“Boyhood“) has one past SAG bid, for “Training Day.” Josh Brolin (“Inherent Vice“) has one past individual nomination, for “Milk,” as well as Ensemble nods for “Milk” and “American Gangster,” and an Ensemble victory for “No Country for Old Men.”

Robert Duvall (“The Judge“) is also a past SAG winner, taking the Supporting Actor prize for “A Civil Action,” though he turned out to be one of the stars who couldn’t convert that victory into Oscar success.

Tom Wilkinson (“Selma“) is a SAG favorite, with two Ensemble wins (“The Full Monty” and “Shakespeare in Love”) out of eight nominations spanning film and TV.

Who do you think will win? Use our drag-and-drop menu below to predict Best Supporting Actor:

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