Past SAG champs do battle for Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon …

Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards is hit and miss when it comes to predicting the Oscar for Best Picture, since it specifically rewards actors and not overall films. But when it comes to predicting individual acting winners, SAG’s predictive value greatly improves. Consider Best Actress, where 81% of nominees (82 out of 101) and 70% of winners (14 out of 20) line up with Oscar.

You decide: Will SAG Awards preview Oscars again?

Click here  to start entering your predictions in all five of SAG’s top races, or use our easy drag-and-drop menu below to get started. Your predictions determine our racetrack odds, and you can keep editing them right up until the day SAG nominations are announced. You score points based on how accurately predict the nominees (you get more points if you correctly predict a long-shot candidate before anyone else does), and if you’re one of our most accurate predictors, you’ll be included next year among our elite Top 24 Users, who have even greater influence over our odds. See the chart on the right to find out who some of our top users are currently predicting.

Only six times in SAG’s 20-year history has its Best Actress winner not gone on to win Oscar, but in every case, the eventual Oscar winner was at least nominated by SAG, so this is a crucial stop on the campaign trail for any leading lady.

In 1994, Jodie Foster (“Nell”) won SAG, but Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”) defeated her at the Oscars.

In 1999, Annette Bening (“American Beauty”) won SAG, but Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”) took home Oscar.

Why do only half of SAG’s Best Ensemble champs go on to win Best Picture Oscar?

In 2002, Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”) prevailed at SAG, but Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”) won Oscar.

In 2007, veteran Julie Christie (“Away from Her”) won SAG, but up-and-comer Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) won Oscar.

2008 was an unusual year. Meryl Streep (“Doubt”) won SAG, where Kate Winslet was nominated as a lead for “Revolutionary Road” and won the supporting race for “The Reader,” but the academy promoted her “Reader” performance to the lead race at the Oscars, where she defeated Streep.

The most recent disconnect was 2011, when Viola Davis (“The Help“) won SAG, but this time it was Meryl Streep’s turn to swoop in and take Oscar, this time for “The Iron Lady.”

Given SAG’s close relationship with Oscar, it’s no surprise that we find many of the same names among this year’s top contenders at both events, including Julianne Moore (“Still Alice“), who has been nominated 10 times before, though her only win to date was for her TV role as Sarah Palin in HBO’s telefilm “Game Change.”

Oscars Poll: Who’s REALLY more overdue, Amy Adams or Julianne Moore?

Other major contenders include Amy Adams (“Big Eyes“), who shared the Ensemble award for “American Hustle” last year; Reese Witherspoon (“Wild“), who won SAG and Oscar for “Walk the Line”; Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl“), a past Ensemble nominee or “An Education”; Hilary Swank (“The Homesman“), SAG and Oscar champ for “Million Dollar Baby”; and Jessica Chastain (“The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby,” “A Most Violent Year,” and/or “Miss Julie“), who won Best Ensemble with the cast of “The Help.”

Among top contenders, the top rookies may be Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything“) and Emily Blunt (“Into the Woods“), who have yet to be nominated at SAG either as individuals or members of an ensemble.

One thought on “Past SAG champs do battle for Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon …

  1. Give this SAG, give the Golden Globe, give the BAFTA, give the Critics’ Choice, give the Oscar, just give every single award to the glorious Marion Cotillard for her virtuoso performance in “Two Days, One Night”. If she’s not going to sweep every Best Actress award there is in 2015, I don’t see why any of those awards should include a Best Actress category. Her performance is the best of the best, it’s a landmark in the history of acting, it’s a towering achievement in the history of human kind, it’s the triumph of what acting means, it’s among the best performances ever put on screen, male or female. Plus, she’s so ridiculously overdue for a second Oscar nomination, the whole thing ends up disheartening if she’s about not only not win any of those awards but also not even be nominated again. I tell you, there’s no actress nor there’s going to be that deserves to be given the award for Most Outstanding Female Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role at SAGS in 2015. There’s no actress that deserves the Best Actress Oscar more. She’s simply unique!

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