Will SAG Awards preview winners at Oscars?

The Screen Actors Guild, which numbers more than 100,000, has been bestowing competive awards since 1994. However, despite the actors branch making up 20% of the 6,000 Oscar voters, only two-thirds of SAG champs have won over the academy as well. Compare that to the 90% success rate of the Directors Guild of America at presaging which helmer will prevail at the Oscars. 

SAG Awards: Complete list of film and TV nominations

Sure, all four of last year’s Oscar acting champs first prevailed here but that marked only the fifth time in 20 years that the guild hit a home run. 

Over the first two decades of the SAG Awards, guild members have handed out 80 trophies. Their choices have forecast the Academy Awards winners just 55 times — 57 if you count Benicio del Toro, who won in lead at SAG in 2000 for “Traffic” and supporting at the Oscars and Kate Winslet who did the reverse, winning supporting at SAG in 2008 for “The Reader” and lead at the Oscars. 

SAG Awards mystery solved: Just who decided these nominations?

Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how many SAG winners repeated at the Oscars.

1994: 3 out of 4
1995: 2 out of 4
1996: 3 out of 4
1997: 4 out of 4 (Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart tied in supporting)
1998: 2 out of 4
1999: 3 out of 4
2000: 2 out of 4 (Del Toro in different categories)
2001: 1 out of 4
2002: 1 out of 4
2003: 3 out of 4
2004: 4 out of 4
2005: 3 out of 4
2006: 3 out of 4
2007: 2 out of 4
2008: 3 out of 4 (Winslet in different categories)
2009: 4 out of 4
2010: 4 out of 4
2011: 3 out of 4
2012: 3 out of 4
2013: 4 out of 4

All of our Oscar frontrunners are in the running here — leads Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) and featured players J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash“) and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) — as well as their closest rivals. 

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SAG Awards: Complete list of film and TV nominations

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