SAG Awards predictions: ‘American Hustle,’ Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett …

Not surprisingly, the Screen Actors Guild Awards is one of the best precursors as to who will win the four acting categories at the Oscars. In their 19-year history, these kudos have previewed 52 of the 76 Oscar winners for acting. Both last year and in 2011, SAG winners went three for four at the Oscars. 

SAG Awards TV predictions: ‘Breaking Bad,’ ‘Big Bang Theory,’ Alec Baldwin …

The guild is less reliable when predicting Best Picture. In the 18-year history of the Best Ensemble award, that winner went on to take Oscar’s top prize only nine times. However, seven of those were in the last 11 years, including last year’s win by “Argo.”

And, in good news for “American Hustle,” SAG did presage two of Oscar’s biggest upsets: “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998, and “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain” in 2005.

Below, our predictions for Saturday’s winners based upon a combination of the four sets of forecasts at Gold Derby: Experts, Editors,Top 24 Users predicting last year’s winners and All Users.

We expect “12 Years a Slave” to be shut out, despite a leading four nominations. Likewise for “The Butler“, which was snubbed by the Oscars despite reaping three bids here.

American Hustle” is predicted to win both of its bids while the men of “Dallas Buyers Club” are forecast to take home both awards and Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”) is going to need to make room on her already crowded mantle. 

Our forecasted champs are in gold while potential spoilers are in italics. Click on each category title to be taken to an overview of that race. 

BEST ENSEMBLE (previewed Oscar winner 9/18 years)
“American Hustle”
Spoiler: “12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR (previewed Oscar winner 15/19 years)
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club
Spoiler: Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”

BEST ACTRESS (previewed Oscar winner 13/19 years)
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine
Spoiler: Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (previewed Oscar winner 11/19 years)
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”
Spoiler: James Gandolfini, “Enough Said”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (previewed Oscar winner 13/19 years)
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Spoiler: Lupita Nyongo, “12 Years a Slave”

What do you think is going to win Film Ensemble? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

5 thoughts on “SAG Awards predictions: ‘American Hustle,’ Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett …

  1. Amanda… LOL I agree she wasn’t that great at her speeches, but she won most if not all of her prelim. awards and there wasn’t anyone else that could take the stage to “UPSTAGE” her… aside from that, she did have a lot of momentum going into the Oscars

  2. Kev, the deadline for SAG voting was Friday noon PT. So her speech on Thursday is too late to have an effect. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t win, just not by the help of the speech.

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