If our Gold Derby Oscar predictions are any indication, “The Fault in Our Stars” isn’t going to be a strong contender. Based on our overall racetrack odds, the film gets 100/1 odds across all categories. No way those academy geezers (average age over 60) will take seriously a teen movie based on a young-adult novel, right? Isn’t that just kids’ stuff? But our forums poster FreemanGriffin thinks we might be wrong. He thinks it deserves to be in the Oscar discussion. Do you agree?
If so, click here to make or edit your Oscar predictions in all top categories. Make your choices carefully. Remember, your picks are factored into Gold Derby’s official racetrack odds, which give ulcers to Oscar-crazed Hollywood chiefs and stars. Your opinion matters, but you’re not locked in to your early picks. Change them as often as you wish up until a few hours before Oscar nominations will be unveiled. Contest prize for best predictions: $1,000. Click here to meet Tim Kressman, who won our competition last year.
Separate from Gold Derby’s composite odds are the predictions made just by our site’s regular users like you. See chart at right. Notice that our users rank star Shailene Woodley far higher for Best Actress than the rest of our predictors — they put her in seventh place.
However, only 13 users rank Woodley in first place out of 1,327 people currently logging predix. Many more people would like her to win even if they’re not predicting her. When our forum poster Vincelette recently set up a Facebook page proclaiming Woodley deserves an Oscar nom, it got 1,962 “likes.”
“The direction of ‘Stars’ by Josh Boone is superb, assured, controlled and expertly paced,” says FreemanGriffin in our forums, adding, “the lead performances by Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort are remarkable, charming, moving, and memorable … and a fine script that is sentimental yet also quite moving.”
The film, about teenagers who meet and fall in love at a cancer support group, is based on the bestselling novel by John Green, who has one of the most devoted online fan bases of any author. The novel and film are aimed at young adults, a target audience Oscar voters generally don’t take seriously, but unlike other YA sensations like “Harry Potter,” “Twilight,” and “The Hunger Games,” “Fault” eschews fantasy and sci-fi for a love story set very much in the real world. That might make it an easier sell for awards voters.
It helps that Woodley’s star continues to rise in Hollywood. In addition to the leading role in the new “Divergent” film franchise, she has already garnered acclaim and awards attention for her previous work. She won an Independent Spirit Award for her supporting turn in “The Descendants,” a performance that also earned her nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and SAG Awards. She also won a Special Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival for “The Spectacular Now” along with co-star Miles Teller, who is gaining his own Oscar buzz this year for “Whiplash.”
“The Fault in Our Stars” received solid reviews (69 on MetaCritic, 80% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes), and also turned out to be a giant box office hit, costing only $12 million to produce but grossing $300 million worldwide. Similar financial success helped another unlikely Oscar movie, “The Blind Side,” score a Best Picture bid and a Best Actress win for Sandra Bullock.
What do the rest of our forum posters think about the film’s Oscar chances? Read some of their comments below, then click here to join the discussion in our forums:
Macbeth: “I personally didn’t like it too much, but Shailene proves her talent … as a young adult adaptation, it is pretty harmless, but I really don’t think it’s in the Oscar conversation.”
ETPhoneHome: “‘Fault in Our Stars’ is definitely the most well-made YA adaptation I’ve seen. That isn’t saying much, but I give credit where it is due. I think the only place where it would be worthy of recognition is Woodley, because she is still my personal #1 in actress (that could obviously change when I see more contenders).”
Ryan Lapierre: “Woodley deserves a nomination. She was superb. One of my favorite performances of the year (so far). But the academy without a doubt will snub her.”
Atypical: “Woodley’s work here was Oscar-worthy. It’d be nice to see her go the distance with a lead actress nomination.”
Tyler The Awesome Guy: “I finally did see it the other night, and I thought it was wonderful. Ansel and Shailene most definitely deserve nominations, but I doubt that they’ll get it.”
Do you think Woodley will earn her first Oscar nomination? Or are you betting on Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”), Reese Witherspoon (“Wild”) or another top contender?
Make your Best Actress predictions below. Or click here to go directly to your own personal prediction page at Gold Derby. Where do you rank in Gold Derby’s leaderboards? Have you checked our special score areas of this site? Have you made it into Gold Derby’s Top 24 Users who square off against our Experts and Editors? These are just a few rewards you get for making smart predix here — there’s also the money.