Tony Awards experts: ‘Beautiful’ way up, ‘Gentleman’s Guide’ down in Best Musical race

The tuner “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder” came into the Tonys derby with a leading 10 nominations and looked liked a lock for Best Musical. Already, this musicalization of Roy Horniman‘s novel about an heir who dispatches the eight relatives standing in his way of a fortune has racked up wins with the Outer Critics Circle and the Drama League.

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However, in the past week, it has lost the support of many of our Experts and now has just a one-vote lead (8-7) over “Beautiful.” That jukebox musical uses the classic songs of Carole King to tell her life story. Only one other musical that recycles pop songs has prevailed in this top race: “Jersey Boys” back in 2006. 

Those Experts now backing the bid by “Beautiful” are: Melissa Bernardo (EW), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Susan Haskin (Theater Talk), Brian Lipton (Cititour), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Matt Windman (amNY). 

Those still expecting “Gentleman’s Guide” to prevail are: Thom Geier (EW), Harry Haun (Playbill), Andy Humm (Gay USA), Andy Lefkowitz (Theatermania), Michael Musto (Village Voice), David Sheward (TheaterLife), Doug Strassler (NY Press) and Wayman Wong (Talkin Broadway).

Podcast: Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) vs. Thom Geier (EW) on top Tony races

Stay tuned to see how this very fluid race shakes out in the days leading up to the Tonys on June 8. 

See how our Experts rank predictions in each category. See charts detailing their racetrack odds (click “More” within each category box to see extended data). Review contenders here and enter predictions here or start below with Best Musical by using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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