The American Cinema Editors nominations announced Friday cited our Oscar frontrunner “Boyhood” and one of its strongest Best Picture rivals, “Birdman,” but not the other, “Selma.” (Click here for the full list of nominations in film and TV.)
The winner of the Golden Eddie has proven to be one of the best indicators of which film takes home the Best Picture Oscar. Since 1990, the film that came up with the ACE went on to win the top prize at the Academy Awards 17 times.
In five of the seven years when the ACE barometer was wrong, the Eddie champ was at least a contender for Best Picture, including last year when both the drama winner (“Captain Phillips”) and the comedy champ (“American Hustle”) were among the eight Best Picture nominees that lost to “12 Years a Slave.”
In 2007, neither of the Eddie winners — “The Bourne Ultimatum” nor “Sweeney Todd” — made the final five contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars and 1999 the same fate befell “The Matrix” and “Being John Malkovich.”
Though ACE has a good track record as a Best Picture predictor and a great one for forecasting who will win the Editing Oscar (19 out of 24 years), it is surprising that it is not all knowing when it comes to the Editing Oscar nominations.
Since 1992, when the Eddies went to five nominees from three, 96 of the 110 Oscar nominees for Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie nod.
Last year, four Eddie nominees went on to contend for Best Editing at the Oscars including eventual winner “Gravity” as well as ACE champs “American Hustle” and “Captain Phillips” as well as “12 Years a Slave.” The fifth Oscar nominee was “Dallas Buyers Club.”
In both 2012 and in 2011, five of the Eddie nominees comprised the Oscar slate. In 2010, four Eddie nominees contended at the Oscars (“127 Hours” got the fifth slot) while in 2009, only three of five ACE drama nominees — “Avatar,” “District 9” and “The Hurt Locker” — reaped Oscar bids with “Inglorious Basterds” and “Precious” added to the mix.
Although this track record appears impressive enough, ACE doubled its chances of getting it right when it split Dramas and Comedy/Musicals into separate kudos in 1999. Five years ago, the Comedy/Musical Eddie went to Stephen Schaffer for “Wall-E.” Schaffer — a 2004 nominee for “The Incredibles” — made history with this win as it was the first time an animated film had taken one of these kudos since they were first handed out back in 1950.
The 65th annual edition of the Eddie Awards take place on Jan. 30 at the Beverly Hilton.
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