Emmy predictions: ‘Bessie’ seems unbeatable for Best TV Movie with overwhelming 2-to-11 odds

Bessie Queen Latifah Emmy Awards Best TV Movie

HBO is expected to continue its decades-long dominance of Best TV Movie at this year’s Emmys. Our exclusive Gold Derby odds have the period piece “Bessie” heavily favored to win with leading odds of 2/11.The biopic starring Queen Latifah as legendary blues singer Bessie Smith, picked up 12 nominations this year, more than its five category rivals combined. 

Related: Watch our editor Emmy slugfests predicting all four guest acting races

Two of the other contenders have two bids each: the  HBO productions “Nightingale” starring David Oyelowo, which is in second place at 12/1 and “Hello Ladies The Movie” starring Stephen Merchant, which is tied for last at 100/1. The other three nominees are “Agatha Christie’s Poirot: Curtain, Poirot’s Last Case” starring David Suchet at 50/1, “Killing Jesus” starring Haaz Sleiman at 50/1, and “Grace of Monaco” starring Nicole Kidman at 100/1.

Since 1993, HBO has won this race every year but two: in 2000, when ABC’s “Tuesdays with Morrie” prevailed, and in 2003, when the prize went to TNT’s “Door to Door.” That remarkable run doesn’t include the three years when movies and miniseries were combined into one category. In that consolidated race, HBO telefilms won two out of three times, for “Game Change” (2012) and “Behind the Candelabra” (2013); the first season of “Downton Abbey” won this combined category in 2011.

For the first time, this award will be presented at Saturday’s Creative Arts ceremony rather than the live prime-time show on Fox the following Sunday at which Queen Latifah contends for Best Movie/Mini Actress. If “Bessie” prevails, she would pick up her first-ever Emmy as she is credited as an executive producer. The other producers are the late Richard D. Zanuck, Lili Fini Zanuck, Shakim Compere, Shelby Stone, Randi Michel, and Ron Schmidt.

Related: Watch “Bessie” webchats with Queen Latifah, Michael K. Williams & more

Will “Bessie” win Best TV Movie? Make your own Emmys picks now to the right or at the bottom of this post, and you could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up).

Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year? Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photo: Queen Latifah in “Bessie.” Credit: Frank Masi/HBO

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