While Gold Derby's Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users and All Users are predicting that Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") will finally win the Best Drama Actor Emmy, I think this race is a lot closer. Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul"), I'm looking at you.
Don't forget, his new show created by Vince Gilligan and Peter Gould is a spinoff of their hit series "Breaking Bad." That drama earned a whopping nine acting Emmys during its five seasons: four for Bryan Cranston, three for Aaron Paul and a pair for Anna Gunn. In other words, Gilligan and Gould know how to win Emmys for their actors.
Before Cranston won his first trophy in 2008, many pundits had dismissed him entirely because his show was so small and he wasn't as well-known as rival nominees Hamm, Gabriel Byrne, Michael C. Hall, Hugh Laurie and three-time champ James Spader. But Cranston proved them wrong thanks, in no small part, because of his socko Emmy episode submission, the pilot.
Gold Derby's combined predictions currently favor Hamm with overwhelming 1/4 odds. However, I think that pick is still risky. Remember, no star from "Mad Men" has ever won, despite 34 previous bids. Odenkirk is already a two-time Emmy champ, for writing "Saturday Night Live" (1989) and "The Ben Stiller Show" (1993), proving voters aren't afraid of giving him the gold.
If the "Mad Men" Emmy curse continues for this show's final hurrah, we can expect Hamm to lose and Odenkirk (12/1 odds) to claim the easy victory. Like Cranston before him, Odenkirk has submitted a stand-out episode to Emmy judges ("Pimento") in which his character Jimmy/Saul has an emotional blow-up with his loving brother, played by Michael McKean.
We chatted with Odenkirk before nominations came out, and he revealed why he wanted to make "Pimento" his Emmy submission. "It's not even a challenging questions. The ninth episode of the show, where Jimmy realizes that his brother has [turned on him]," he revealed. "It took the most to do and the most out of me, and I'm very proud of the work that I did." Watch our entire webchat below.
Rounding out the Best Drama Actor category are Kevin Spacey ("House of Cards") in third place with 16/1 odds, Kyle Chandler ("Bloodline") in fourth place at 33/1 and Jeff Daniels ("The Newsroom") and Liev Schreiber ("Ray Donovan") who are both tied for last place with odds of 100/1. Who do you think will win on Sept. 20?
Make your own Emmys picks now starting with this category to the right or at the bottom of this post.
You could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Emmys line-up).
Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.
Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby's Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year's Emmys). Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
Which group will be victorious this year?
As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.