Monday night's "Dancing With the Stars," in which the celebs paid tribute to icons who inspired them and then went head-to-head in dance-offs for extra points, was a tough one for Gold Derby's racetrack odds. None of our consensus picks panned out, leading to an elimination that surprised more than 90% of our readers. Did you anticipate all of this week's results? If so, you did better than any of the users who entered our predictions contest.
Despite coming off his strongest two weeks in the competition, singer Andy Grammer was eliminated. This came as a surprise because after his two dances on "Halloween Night" — an individual routine and a team dance — he was tied with Carlos PenaVega for the second highest judges' score. That means he must have been gravely let down by viewer voters, which allowed his four lower-scoring rivals to get ahead of him.
It's common for the lowest scoring dancer to survive elimination, but much less common for the second highest scorer to go home instead, which explains why only 7% of our contest players predicted Grammer's exit, which gave him 14/1 odds. For the second week in a row, we predicted that military man Alek Skarlatos would be eliminated, and for the second week in a row he lives to dance another day. He had the lowest score going into Monday night's show and also the lowest score going into last week's show, which indicates consistent, stronger-than-expected viewer support.
Skarlatos also surprised us in another way. A whopping 70% of us expected him to have the lowest judges' score again this week (4/9 odds), but it was Grammer who sank to the bottom after his emotions got the better of him during a messy Viennese waltz dedicated to his late mother. He later won his dance-off against Skarlatos at the end of the night, but even those extra points weren't enough to lift him from the bottom of the leaderboard. Only 14% of our contest players saw that coming (6/1 odds).
Nick Carter dealt us the third surprise of the night. 54% of us thought Bindi Irwin would get the high score (5/6 odds) as she has done five times before, but Carter received a perfect score (30 out of 30) for a contemporary routine dedicated to his wife, who recently became pregnant. That perfect score gave him immunity from elimination and an automatic three-point bonus, and it exempted him from the dance-off. Just 17% of our contest players predicted Carter's high score (5/1 odds).
None of our users predicted 100% of this week's results. In fact, fewer than a third of us got anything right at all. Six users did score 67% predictions for the week: Debgro, WiltedYouth, Avaday, Karen Wood, Nate and GusCruz. Of those, Debgro had the highest overall points total (8,225) and takes the top spot on our predictions leaderboard.
How did Debgro pull off that high score? By placing 500 points on Andy Grammer's elimination when he had 14/1 odds, resulting in an impressive 7,000-point payout. Debgro bet another 200 on Grammer's low score at 6/1 odds, paying out with another 1,200 points. Click the chart below for this week's complete results:
Keep your point bets in mind when making your predictions: coming out on top doesn't just mean answering the week's questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (one of 500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a long shot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points. As we use those point totals to break ties when more than one user tops our leaderboard with the same number of correct predictions (as happened this week), don't take them for granted.
There were no major shakeups on our overall leaderboard for the season to date. Last week WiltedYouth took sole possession of the top spot, and thanks to his strong forecasts Monday night he holds on with 16 out of 24 correct predictions (67%) for the season to date. Because of this week's surprise results, other users faltered, so WiltedYouth actually extends his lead. Now tied for second place with 14 out of 24 correct predictions (58%) are Denton Davidson and Karen Wood.
Who do you think will be eliminated next week? Refer to this week's scores below before making your predictions:
Nick Carter – 30 + 3 = 33
Carlos PenaVega – 27 + 2 = 29
Tamar Braxton – 28 + 0 = 28
Bindi Irwin – 28 + 0 = 28
Alexa PenaVega – 25 + 2 = 27
Alek Skarlatos – 25 + 0 = 25
Andy Grammer – 22 + 2 = 24 (ELIMINATED)
In our "Dancing with the Stars" predictions center, you get to answer the following questions each week:
Which celebrity will be eliminated?
Who will receive the HIGHEST score from the judges?
Who will receive the LOWEST score from the judges?
Who will win 'Dancing with the Stars'?
Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes. Users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it's important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click "Save Predictions" when you've settled on your choices. And every time someone logs their predictions, the racetrack odds of the contestants are automatically updated.
At the end of each week, the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy and most points will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, so it's beneficial to keep coming back often and making/updating your predictions.
Which dancers do you like (and dislike) the most? Sound off in the comments section below, and join the discussion in Gold Derby's reality TV forum.
Photos: Andy Grammer and Allison Holker, Nick Carter and Lauren Kitt, "Dancing with the Stars." Credit: ABC