Who do you think is going home in this week's two-night "Dancing With the Stars" semifinals event? If you think you know, make your predictions for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card (if you qualify according to our contest rules).
Last week, a dreaded double elimination narrowed the field from six to four. Viewers finally voted out "Bachelor" star Chris Soules and "Shark Tank" businessman Robert Herjavec after weeks of posting low scores, leaving four semifinalists: military vet Noah Galloway, gymnast Nastia Liukin, musician Riker Lynch and actress Rumer Willis. With the competition down to just an elite few, the contestants will have to work even harder for a spot in the finals.
That could be bad news for Galloway. The double-amputee has met the challenges of the competition with unique choreography by his pro partner Sharna Burgess, but he has by far the lowest average score of the remaining contestants: 31 out of 40, compared to 35.7 for Willis, 35.9 for Liukin, and 36 for Lynch. He may finally be unable to keep up.
A whopping 88% of our users predict he'll get the lowest judges' score this week, giving him 2/13 odds. It is perhaps surprising, then, that only 54% of users think he'll then be eliminated, resulting in 5/6 odds.
Our users are no fools. They know how much viewers have loved to save contestants with the worst judges' scores; only two bottom-scorers have gotten the boot all season: musician Redfoo, who was the first star eliminated this season, and Herjavec, who went home last week.
Galloway may also benefit from a conservative bloc of "DWTS" voters, who voted outspoken Christian actress Candace Cameron Bure into the finals in season 18 ahead of contestants who consistently scored higher. The same voters carried "Duck Dynasty" star Sadie Robertson to a runner-up finish in season 19, even though she was only the fourth best dancer of the season based on her average judges' score. Now, the "American Sniper" crowd may similarly rally around war hero Galloway.
So if Galloway does manage to beat the odds and advance to the finals, who will be eliminated instead?
Well, according to our users, Lynch is next in line for the chopping block. 25% say he'll be eliminated, resulting in odds of 3/1. It's hard to know for sure how strong Lynch's fan base is. The 23-year-old musician may have fans that skew young, a lot like "Hunger Games" star Willow Shields, who was shockingly eliminated two weeks ago despite consistently high scores.
Last season, YouTube star Bethany Mota also had a passionate young fan base, but even though she was one of the strongest dancers in that contest and had the benefit of "DWTS" fan-favorite Derek Hough as her partner, even she couldn't make it to the finals.
Speaking of Hough, his current partner Liukin shouldn't get too comfortable either. 10% of users think she'll be eliminated, giving her 9/1 odds.
Only 3% of users think Willis will get the axe (33/1 odds). Another 3% say there will be no elimination at all and that all four contestants will advance to next week's final round.
Our top three users predicting this season of "DWTS" think Galloway will be eliminated: Radzie, who holds the top spot in our predictions leaderboard with 54% accuracy after eight weeks, as well as second and third place users Eeric and Kevin Postel, who both have 42% for the season.
If you think our users are wrong and we're in for a shocking elimination, you can bet on Willis now at 33/1 odds and score major points, which could help you win our $100 prize.
Remember that coming out on top doesn't just mean answering the week's questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (one of 500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a long shot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points. As we use those point totals to break ties when more than one user tops our leaderboard with the same number of correct answers, don't take them for granted.
So if you bet 500 points on Willis's elimination at 33/1 odds, you'll get 16,500 points if you're right. By comparison, if you bet 500 points on Galloway at 5/6 odds, that will pay out with only 416 points if you're right. That could be the difference between winning our contest and losing it if you're tied for the most right answers, but proceed with caution. If you predict a long shot and you're wrong, you could knock yourself out of contention entirely.
Make or update your predictions below by dragging contestants from the left to the right in your forecasted order of likelihood of being eliminated. For example, if you think Galloway's days are numbered, make sure to have him in first place. You can continue to update and change your predictions throughout the week until 5 p.m. PT each Monday. Just click "Save Predictions" when you've settled on your choice.
After logging in, click on the "Predictions" button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.
We are forecasting everything from the results on reality TV shows like "The Amazing Race" and "Survivor" to the body count on "The Walking Dead" to the winners of the Academy of Country Music Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys.
Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.
For each TV show, cast your votes on several different questions relating to the upcoming episode. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely.