"Modern Family" went undefeated five times at past Emmy races for Best Comedy Series, but now "Veep" is out front with the best odds (21/20) to prevail on Sept. 20, according to experts polled by Gold Derby.
Out of 17 pundits, nine pick "Veep," six bet on "Transparent" (2 to 1 odds) and there's one pundit each behind "Modern Family" (14/1) and "Parks and Recreation" (16/1). See the experts' odds in all top Emmy races. See how each expert ranks the nominees according to likelihood of winning.
The Emmyologists casting a vote for "Veep" are: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Ken Tucker (Yahoo).
Meanwhile, Michael Ausiello (TV Line), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Richard Lawson (Vanity Fair), Matt Roush (TV Guide magazine), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Jarrett Wieselman (BuzzFeed) are touting "Transparent," the breakout Amazon series.
Eric Deggans (NPR) stands alone in forecasting victory for "Modern Family." That gives the ABC laffer odds of only 14/1 to break its tie with "Frasier" as the most honored comedy at the Emmys. And John Griffiths (Us Weekly) is the lone Expert betting on "Parks and Rec," which aired its last season.
Click on the chart above to see how those odds stack up to the predictions by the other three groups at Gold Derby: our Editors, Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year's winners), and Users just like you. Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% which tied them with both Gold Derby's Editors and the Top 24 Users. Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.) Which group will be victorious this year?
Our Experts have made predictions in 32 categories in all, and appropriately, the two top contenders for Best Comedy Series are also their favorites in the comedy lead-acting contests. A dozen Experts are betting on "Veep" star Julia Louis-Dreyfus to take Best Comedy Actress for the fourth year in a row, giving her leading odds of 8/15. And an overwhelming 16 of our 17 Experts favor six-time Emmy also-ran Jeffrey Tambor to win Best Comedy Actor for playing the transgender title character in "Transparent," giving him odds of 2/11.
On the drama side of the ledger, "Mad Men" will set a new record with a fifth win for Best Drama Series … but only according to Experts. Twelve of them are backing the AMC period drama compared to only five who say it will be HBO's fantasy epic "Game of Thrones," but our other groups (Editors, Top 24 Users and all Users) all say "Thrones" is the frontrunner, giving it overall best odds of 10/9.
There's no such disagreement in the drama lead-acting races. All four groups agree on the consensus for Best Drama Actor — Jon Hamm will finally prevail after eight straight nominations for "Mad Men" — and more history will be made in the Drama Actress race, where Viola Davis ("How to Get Away with Murder") is forecast to become the first African American ever to win that category.
Below are the Experts' odds for the top six Emmy categories. Click on the category title for a more in-depth look at each race. And click here to see the Experts' predictions in all 32 categories.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent" – 2/11
William H. Macy, "Shameless" – 14/1
Louis C.K., "Louie" – 50/1
Anthony Anderson, "Black-ish" – 50/1
Will Forte, "The Last Man on Earth" – 100/1
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes" – 100/1
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies" – 100/1
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep" – 8/15
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" – 13/2
Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer" – 14/1
Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback" – 14/1
Lily Tomlin, "Grace and Frankie" – 14/1
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" – 100/1
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" – 2/9
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul" – 13/2
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards" – 50/1
Kyle Chandler, "Bloodline" – 50/1
Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom" – 100/1
Liev Schreiber, "Ray Donovan" – 100/1
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Viola Davis, "How to Get Away with Murder" – 8/15
Taraji P. Henson, "Empire" – 9/2
Tatiana Maslany, "Orphan Black" – 14/1
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men" – 14/1
Robin Wright, "House of Cards" – 50/1
Claire Danes, "Homeland" – 100/1
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