“I think your four shows from last year [are safe for nominations],” says editor Chris Beachum in our latest editors’ slugfest about this year’s contenders for Best Drama Series (watch it below). He believes “Game of Thrones,” “Downton Abbey,” “House of Cards” and “Mad Men” will return, and that “Orange is the New Black” will make the move to drama “pretty easily” after competing last year as a comedy. “That makes five, but that still leaves us with two open slots.”
Beachum, Paul Sheehan and I agree on those five shows, as do most of our predictors. But this year, the TV academy is expanding the field for Best Drama and Best Comedy to seven nominees – more if the 2% rule takes effect. With so many shows vying for those last two slots, who should you predict before nominations are announced on July 16?
I have “Empire” in my sixth-place slot. The soapy, musical melodrama isn’t the kind of show the Emmys usually go for, but I think they’ll nominate it this year anyway because it’s too big to ignore. With its blockbuster ratings, it’s the big broadcast-network savior. Shows like this don’t come around very often.
But Sheehan isn’t so sure. “Is that serious enough fare to get a Drama Series nomination?” he wonders. “I’m not sure when you’ve got other shows like ‘The Americans,’ the ‘Breaking Bad‘ spinoff ‘Better Call Saul‘ and ‘The Good Wife‘ all jockeying for position.”
If “Better Call Saul” does break through, Beachum thinks it would be due to residual affection for “Breaking Bad.” “I don’t know that there was universal acclaim for it other than Bob Odenkirk and some other aspects of it,” he argues.
Beachum isn’t currently predicting “Saul,” but he is betting on a nod for “The Americans,” “mainly off of that Critics’ Choice win [for Best Drama Series], but sometimes you wonder if you’re buying into something just because you want it to happen.”
Watch below to also find out who we’re betting on in the hotly contested drama acting races. Click here to see our Editors’ complete Emmy predictions.
Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%).
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