Do you want to do better in your Emmy predictions this year and win Gold Derby’s $1,000 grand prize? Then I urge you to reconsider three potential Best Drama Actor contenders as you go about making or updating your predictions: Charlie Hunnam (“Sons of Anarchy“), Matthew Rhys (“The Americans“) and Hugh Bonneville (“Downton Abbey“).
These three leading men currently all have lowly 100/1 combined odds at Gold Derby, which means you’ll earn more points if you predict them and end up being correct. Don’t forget, if there’s a tie amongst users for the highest prediction accuracy, the tie-breaker will be determined by the person with the most points. That’s when it becomes advantageous to place your special 500 and 200 point bets on categories where you’re predicting longshots to be nominated.
Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can change your picks later as often as you wish. The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will come out victorious this year?
Let’s examine the pros and cons of the three Drama Actor contenders that I think deserve better than 100/1 odds:
“Sons of Anarchy” was on a hot streak in its final year, with every episode performing better than the last in term of ratings and buzz for network FX. Hunnam’s career-best performance came in the “Suits of Woe” episode, when Jax finally discovered the truth behind his wife’s murder at the hands of his mother. It’s an episode tailer-made to be an Emmy submission … if only he were to receive a nomination.
It’s rare for a performer in their seventh season to get nominated for their first acting Emmy. As unfortunate as it may be, usually when the Emmys snub you, they keep snubbing you. And while “Sons of Anarchy” was a fan favorite, it’s far from an awards juggernaut. Over its first six years on the air, “SoA” only mustered two measly Creative Arts Emmy nominations.
Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”)
Rhys is a two-time nominee at both the Critics’ Choice TV Awards and the Television Critics Association. That’s key going forward, as the Emmys sometimes take cues from the critics when making their nominations. Also, fan response is through the roof for Season 3 and it was just picked up for another year by FX.
Despite an impressive body of work that includes “The Americans” and “Brothers & Sisters,” Rhys still doesn’t have an Emmy nom to his name. Rest easy, Matthew: Many worthy actors go their entire careers without being feted by the TV Academy. Will he be one of them? (See our photo gallery of outrageous Emmy snubs below.)
Before the “True Detective” twosome of Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson took over the Drama Actor race, Bonneville was a fixture here, receiving noms in 2012 and 2013. Now that the detectives are gone, as well as last year’s winner Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), voters may nominate Bonneville again based solely on familiarity.
Bonneville’s snub last year is telling, as the aging show still did receive four acting nominations: Michelle Dockery as Lead Actress, Maggie Smith and Joanne Froggatt as Supporting Actress and Jim Carter as Supporting Actor. Sure, the competition in Bonneville’s category was steep, but if voters still loved him they would have found a way to make room for him. (Just ask eight-time nominee Mariska Hargitay.)
Make your Emmys picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Drama Actor winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. See contest rules.
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