It’s been nine years since Lisa Kudrow was nominated for Best Comedy Actress for HBO’s “The Comeback” in 2006. The series was canceled after one season, but it developed a passionate cult following and made a comeback of its own, returning to TV in 2014. Will the Emmys be as fond of her performance as they were nearly a decade ago?
She ranks seventh in our overall racetrack odds, which combine the predictions of our Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who racked up the best scores among the thousands predicting last year’s Emmy nominations) and all Users. It’s understandable that our predictors are skeptical given how long it’s been since “The Comeback” was last in contention, but our Top 24 are much more optimistic: they rank her fourth. Since they outscored almost all of our Experts, Editors and Users last year, we should take their forecasts seriously, especially when they differ from the consensus.
The Top 24 give Kudrow 12/1 odds. None of them are predicting her to win, but 13 expect her to be nominated: alexaalaw, Ashkan, Irishmovielover4ever, CameronFansler, Aquila_Henry, Jaime Chile, helmetz, mjroberts97, victor, GriffRuss, mswan, jonjon893 and Gold Derby’s own contributing editor Charles Bright.
They’re not alone. Four out of seven Editors also rank her among likely nominees, myself included. Also betting on her are my colleagues Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and Tom O’Neil. Collectively, we rank her fifth with 10/1 odds.
More than 700 Users concur; they rank her sixth with 16/1 odds.
It’s our Experts who are the most skittish about her candidacy. They rank her eighth overall with 20/1 odds, but nevertheless, five out of the 12 of them are on the Kudrow bandwagon: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post) and O’Neil.
But even if she is nominated, Kudrow may have a tough time winning. Julia Louis-Dreyfus has gone undefeated with three straight wins as cynical politician Selina Meyer in the satire “Veep,” and she’s overwhelmingly favored to make it four in a row. 11 out of 12 Experts, 20 of our Top 24, all seven Editors, and the vast majority of all Users are predicting another victory for the actress, who also previously won Emmys for “Seinfeld” and “The New Adventures of Old Christine.”
Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%).
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