Golden Globe predictions: Can ‘The Big Short’ defeat ‘The Martian’ for Best Comedy/Musical Picture?

the big short the martian

"The Big Short" has been surging this season on the awards campaign trail, earning a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards and a Best Picture bid at Critics' Choice. It's also up for Best Comedy/Musical Picture at the Golden Globes. Since we've underestimated it for much of the season, could it actually win the Globe on its way to a significant Oscars windfall?

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After all, this category was where we saw one of last year's biggest surprises: almost all of us predicted that "Birdman" would prevail, but instead the Golden Globes picked "The Grand Budapest Hotel," which had been surging in the awards derby similar to the way "The Big Short" is now. Of course, "Birdman" ended up winning the Oscar for Best Picture anyway, so neither "The Big Short" nor "The Martian" should give up hope regardless of the Globes result.

As of this writing our Experts (journalists who cover this beat year-round) are split down the middle: six predict "The Big Short," and six predict "The Martian." But our Top 24 Users, those two dozen folks who had the highest scores predicting last year's Golden Globe winners are far more decisive.

Currently, 16 of the Top 24 say "The Martian" will prevail, giving it 8/15 odds: MatthewLukeBrady, nlb329, Trevor, PATRICK DELPECH, Connor, GoldFinch, PederEricson, juanje94, Jacob, RalphMalcowitz, 4getregret, Chale Green, halfmoonkid, AayaanUpadhyaya, Davard and OrlandoWhitcomb-Worden.

Another seven top users say "The Big Short" will prevail, giving the Wall Street satire 23/10 odds: GabrielRBlanchard-Jetzer, ldm2006, Joe Yule Jr., Luke Mosseau, Neat 3 Photograph, PipePVelasco and Yopi.

None of our Top 24 Users are predicting victory for any of the other three nominees: "Trainwreck," "Joy" or "Spy."

Our Editors, who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, also think "The Martian" has the edge. Four out of six predict the sci-fi adventure, giving it 8/13 odds: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Tom O'Neil and myself. The last two, Rob Licuria and Paul Sheehan, are backing "The Big Short," giving it 2/1 odds.

Top 10 Oscars underdogs: Michael B. Jordan, Charlize Theron, Harrison Ford …

Make your Golden Globe predictions starting with Best Comedy/Musical Picture to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You'll compete to win our contest prize for best picks — a $100 Amazon gift certificate — as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Golden Globe winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it's important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

"The Big Short" photo credit: Paramount

"The Martian" photo credit: Moviestore/REX

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