The race for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress at the Golden Globes is too close to call according to the predictions of Gold Derby's Editors – those of us who cover awards year-round for the site. We're split down the middle between two-time Globe-winner Jennifer Lawrence ("Joy") and first-time Globe-nominee Amy Schumer ("Trainwreck").
Three of us – Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria and Tom O'Neil – are forecasting a victory for Schumer, giving her 11/10 odds. Based on the complete rankings of all of our Editors, she actually gets the very slight edge to win. "Trainwreck" is the first starring film role for Schumer, who also wrote the screenplay. She became a breakout star in recent years thanks to her Emmy-winning Comedy Central series "Inside Amy Schumer." Can she take down one of the Golden Globes' favorite stars?
Lawrence has won twice out of three previous nominations. After losing her first bid, Best Drama Film Actress for "Winter's Bone" (2010), she took this category in 2012 for "Silver Linings Playbook" and claimed Best Film Supporting Actress the very next year for "American Hustle." Both of her victorious performances were directed by David O. Russell, as is "Joy," so will she continue her winning ways? Three more Editors – Chris Beachum, Paul Sheehan and I – think she will, giving her 10/9 odds.
None of our Editors are predicting the other three nominees in the race. We give Lily Tomlin ("Grandma") 50/1 odds, though the veteran actress has another chance at a Globe this year; she's also up for Best TV Comedy/Musical Actress for "Grace and Frankie." These are her sixth and seventh individual acting nominations at these awards, and she won a special prize for Best Ensemble Cast in 1993 for "Short Cuts."
Next is another veteran actress, Maggie Smith ("The Lady in the Van") with 66/1 odds. This is her 12th nomination, including bids for both film and television. She has won twice for her work on the big screen – Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress for "California Suite" (1978) and Best Film Supporting Actress for "A Room with a View" (1986) – and once more on the TV side – Best TV Supporting Actress for "Downton Abbey" (2012). Can she add to that impressive total?
Rounding out the category is Melissa McCarthy ("Spy"), who gets 80/1 odds. It took a while for Golden Globe voters to catch up to the comic actress. This is her first nomination at these awards even though her industry peers have already honored her with an Emmy victory ("Mike and Molly," 2011) and an Oscar nomination ("Bridesmaids," 2011).
Make your Golden Globe winner predictions starting with Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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"Joy" photo credit: 20th Century Fox
"Trainwreck" photo credit: Moviestore/REX